***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.5 11.5 99.7 61.2 49.1 0.1 2.8 3.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.8 7.9 11.6 98.2 63.8 50.8 0.0 2.8 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.3 11.6 97.8 62.2 48.5 0.3 5.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.0 11.0 81.1 57.0 41.6 1.6 6.3 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 1.8 10.6 10.2 83.0 58.1 40.3 0.6 5.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 1.4 4.4 8.0 61.1 48.8 35.0 1.1 4.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.9 8.4 12.0 103.9 65.7 51.7 0.3 2.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 3.1 9.8 11.5 83.5 54.5 41.8 5.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.3 8.2 11.1 92.1 59.7 45.6 0.8 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.7 12.5 11.8 88.3 57.0 44.2 4.2 10.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.3 10.6 83.7 55.5 41.9 1.3 6.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.1 8.3 10.6 83.0 55.1 40.9 0.9 6.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.3 8.8 10.6 82.3 53.4 42.4 1.5 7.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.9 12.4 13.4 92.4 60.6 44.5 1.6 9.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.9 10.3 71.3 56.6 43.1 0.5 2.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.1 6.2 9.7 76.8 53.0 39.9 1.2 4.9 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.5 11.7 96.0 62.1 50.2 0.4 4.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.2 13.2 12.8 92.7 59.2 44.8 3.8 9.1 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.6 8.5 11.7 97.8 63.1 50.4 0.6 2.9 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 13.6 17.3 100.3 60.4 49.4 4.6 8.8 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.5 8.0 11.4 97.3 62.0 47.8 1.7 5.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.2 12.1 97.1 61.8 50.3 0.2 5.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.2 5.1 11.2 92.2 60.4 46.9 0.4 2.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.2 11.1 12.5 95.3 62.3 46.0 2.5 5.4 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.7 5.7 12.8 98.6 62.2 48.4 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.7 6.8 9.3 65.4 48.0 34.9 1.9 8.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.6 12.4 101.0 61.9 50.0 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.9 5.0 9.4 70.7 55.0 41.4 1.2 4.0 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.9 17.8 13.7 92.7 58.6 45.0 8.5 12.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 4.6 7.2 11.8 100.9 64.3 49.7 0.4 1.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------