***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 11.6 14.7 20.1 151.9 76.4 66.8 1.4 5.4 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 15.0 18.0 17.4 147.6 75.0 67.4 3.0 9.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.1 15.7 15.3 119.1 70.0 58.4 2.3 7.1 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.9 15.5 18.6 115.0 68.2 59.1 3.3 11.3 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.8 9.8 16.4 119.7 68.7 56.4 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.1 10.2 17.5 115.6 66.7 60.0 2.8 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 15.4 18.2 21.0 174.8 81.7 71.8 1.9 10.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.2 14.8 87.8 57.6 47.9 6.3 10.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.2 14.5 105.3 63.7 52.2 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.5 13.5 84.7 55.4 45.9 3.0 8.6 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.0 8.6 15.0 107.8 65.0 53.8 1.6 3.9 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.4 14.6 15.8 108.3 66.8 55.2 1.1 3.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 7.8 9.5 17.2 117.3 66.4 60.6 1.7 4.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.8 10.9 12.2 79.0 54.4 47.7 3.1 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 5.3 12.7 16.9 109.3 67.5 60.2 0.9 3.7 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.8 11.3 17.8 123.2 68.9 60.9 1.2 2.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 13.1 15.9 19.0 164.2 80.1 71.1 0.5 7.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.6 13.3 76.4 52.7 42.8 6.4 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 14.9 19.4 15.1 127.0 71.2 62.8 2.0 6.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 11.7 15.1 79.9 50.9 44.3 5.5 10.9 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 10.7 14.4 15.0 111.7 67.5 55.4 3.3 8.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 16.3 18.6 16.1 135.5 73.9 65.4 0.3 8.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.4 11.7 13.5 110.4 66.9 58.1 2.0 7.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.7 12.0 80.4 56.9 46.9 3.4 5.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 11.1 13.8 19.9 137.9 73.4 64.4 4.8 10.5 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 15.3 19.6 23.0 168.3 79.3 69.5 1.0 5.8 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 12.3 16.7 22.2 161.1 77.5 69.2 2.0 4.4 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.7 10.0 15.9 104.9 65.5 57.5 0.4 2.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.4 13.8 75.7 51.7 42.8 7.2 15.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 13.9 13.0 17.7 145.8 75.8 66.4 1.8 9.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------