***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 18.9 19.5 18.4 1.7 76.6 71.7 16.4 17.1 18.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 18.5 18.7 18.2 1.5 71.7 68.4 16.6 17.7 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 19.2 19.6 18.7 1.6 75.2 70.3 17.0 18.1 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 12.3 13.0 16.2 2.3 83.7 77.7 9.4 10.8 12.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 19.2 19.8 17.3 1.9 79.2 73.6 17.0 17.9 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 18.7 19.4 16.4 2.3 83.5 77.1 16.0 17.1 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 18.2 18.5 18.0 1.5 71.4 68.8 16.0 17.3 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 10.0 10.4 16.4 1.9 77.8 72.6 8.1 9.2 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 19.4 20.0 17.9 1.9 79.5 72.8 17.1 18.1 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 18.9 19.5 17.1 2.1 79.9 74.1 16.6 17.7 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 19.4 19.9 17.7 1.9 77.7 72.9 16.8 18.1 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 18.9 19.5 17.1 1.7 76.0 70.8 16.5 17.3 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 19.5 19.9 17.0 1.6 75.1 69.6 17.1 18.3 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 19.3 19.8 17.8 1.6 75.2 69.5 17.7 18.3 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.7 18.6 17.5 2.2 83.4 77.4 16.1 16.8 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 20.1 20.7 17.2 1.8 77.9 72.2 17.8 18.8 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.7 18.0 17.8 1.5 73.9 69.2 16.1 16.8 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 18.1 18.6 16.6 1.9 77.8 72.1 15.9 17.2 18.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 18.7 19.0 18.4 1.5 72.9 68.7 16.7 17.7 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.7 14.7 1.7 74.8 70.1 13.2 14.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 19.3 20.0 18.5 1.9 79.5 73.1 16.9 17.8 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 18.7 19.2 18.0 1.6 76.5 70.2 16.9 17.7 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 19.0 19.5 18.7 1.5 73.8 68.9 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 19.4 19.8 17.9 1.8 76.8 71.1 17.2 18.5 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 18.2 18.9 17.2 1.9 79.6 73.9 16.3 17.0 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 18.8 19.3 16.3 1.5 73.0 68.8 17.0 17.5 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 18.8 19.3 17.9 1.7 77.3 72.3 16.9 17.4 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 18.5 19.0 17.0 2.4 84.3 78.2 16.3 17.1 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.8 15.9 1.7 75.0 70.0 12.5 13.7 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 18.4 18.4 18.2 1.4 71.0 68.5 16.3 17.4 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------