***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.0 15.2 0.7 55.6 54.6 12.9 15.5 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.0 15.3 15.1 0.7 55.9 54.3 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.2 15.5 0.7 54.6 54.1 13.8 15.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.9 13.3 1.1 59.4 57.9 7.2 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.2 14.1 0.8 56.2 55.3 13.6 15.7 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 13.0 15.5 13.3 1.1 56.8 56.9 13.1 15.2 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.9 15.0 0.7 55.2 54.5 13.0 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.6 8.1 13.3 0.7 52.6 54.2 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.2 14.6 0.8 55.3 54.9 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.2 13.9 0.8 53.6 54.7 13.1 15.9 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.4 14.2 0.7 54.9 54.5 13.6 16.1 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 13.1 15.6 13.9 0.6 52.6 53.5 12.9 15.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.6 15.2 13.4 0.6 51.2 53.7 13.2 15.1 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.6 14.5 0.5 51.9 52.5 13.7 16.0 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.1 13.9 1.2 61.3 59.0 13.2 15.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 14.6 17.0 13.9 0.8 55.3 55.0 14.4 16.3 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 12.2 14.4 14.9 0.8 57.9 55.3 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.4 13.6 0.6 53.4 53.3 11.8 14.9 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.0 15.3 0.7 55.7 54.1 12.7 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.7 11.6 0.5 51.7 53.1 9.8 12.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.1 15.1 0.8 56.0 55.1 13.5 15.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 13.3 15.7 14.9 0.8 58.3 55.5 13.3 15.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.0 15.6 0.6 54.6 53.8 13.0 15.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.6 14.6 0.6 53.3 53.2 13.7 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.5 13.9 0.9 56.5 56.0 13.2 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.3 16.0 13.2 0.5 49.8 53.2 13.5 16.1 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.7 14.7 0.8 55.9 55.3 13.9 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.2 13.7 1.2 60.4 58.4 13.5 15.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.8 12.9 0.5 50.5 52.5 9.2 11.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.3 15.1 0.6 54.7 53.9 13.1 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------