***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.7 16.7 0.6 55.3 54.6 13.7 16.3 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.8 16.6 0.5 53.7 53.8 14.2 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.9 17.0 0.6 54.7 54.2 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.4 11.3 14.8 1.0 62.2 58.0 7.8 9.6 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.5 18.0 15.6 0.8 57.2 56.2 15.6 16.9 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 17.9 17.8 14.7 1.1 61.0 58.2 14.9 16.2 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.0 16.5 0.5 53.7 53.9 13.9 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.6 15.1 1.0 59.1 57.3 7.3 8.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.9 18.2 16.1 0.9 57.1 56.2 15.5 17.0 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.5 17.6 15.6 1.1 58.9 57.4 14.5 16.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.8 18.0 15.8 0.8 57.1 56.2 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.1 18.0 15.6 0.8 57.2 55.9 15.3 16.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 14.9 17.9 15.1 0.7 54.6 55.6 15.9 17.3 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.5 16.9 16.1 0.6 52.7 53.8 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 14.2 16.5 15.4 1.0 64.7 57.9 14.0 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 15.7 18.9 15.5 0.8 58.0 56.3 16.4 17.9 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.9 16.4 0.6 54.9 54.4 14.0 15.3 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 13.6 16.0 15.4 1.0 55.4 56.8 13.5 15.4 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.4 16.8 0.5 53.9 53.9 14.2 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 11.7 14.3 13.5 1.0 56.2 57.3 12.9 13.9 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.6 17.9 16.6 0.8 56.5 55.6 15.0 16.8 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.4 16.5 0.7 55.2 55.1 14.5 15.8 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.4 17.1 0.5 54.0 53.7 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.5 17.3 16.2 0.7 53.9 54.9 16.2 16.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 13.9 16.8 15.3 0.8 58.0 56.0 13.8 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.8 15.0 0.6 54.7 55.1 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.7 16.9 16.2 0.7 56.3 55.1 14.4 16.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.0 15.2 1.1 64.9 58.3 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.7 13.7 14.7 0.9 53.9 56.3 10.9 12.9 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.1 16.6 0.5 53.6 53.6 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------