***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 20.3 21.0 20.0 2.4 73.4 70.8 16.2 18.0 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 20.7 20.4 19.8 2.1 69.9 68.1 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 20.3 21.2 20.3 2.3 72.0 69.0 16.7 18.1 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.2 17.7 3.1 81.3 76.4 9.6 11.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 20.4 21.0 19.0 2.7 75.4 71.9 16.9 18.0 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 20.3 21.6 18.2 3.3 78.7 75.8 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 20.1 20.1 19.6 2.1 69.0 68.4 16.0 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 11.2 11.9 18.3 3.0 76.6 73.4 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 20.3 20.8 19.7 2.6 73.9 70.7 16.6 18.4 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 20.0 20.8 18.9 3.0 76.1 72.8 16.5 18.0 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 20.1 20.7 19.6 2.7 74.5 71.3 16.4 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 19.7 20.3 18.9 2.8 74.6 71.8 16.1 17.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 20.2 20.2 18.9 2.4 69.5 69.0 16.7 17.9 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 20.7 20.9 19.6 2.6 74.7 69.8 17.2 19.1 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 19.0 20.6 19.2 3.0 83.3 77.2 16.2 17.6 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 21.2 21.5 19.0 2.6 73.4 71.3 16.9 18.8 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 20.0 20.1 19.4 2.1 69.7 68.2 16.2 17.4 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 19.2 19.8 18.5 3.0 75.9 71.9 16.0 17.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 20.2 20.6 20.1 2.2 71.0 68.3 16.5 18.3 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.8 16.8 2.9 76.9 72.5 12.4 14.7 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 20.4 20.7 20.2 2.6 74.1 71.2 16.6 18.4 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 20.8 20.8 19.7 2.3 72.0 69.4 16.8 18.4 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 20.2 20.6 20.4 2.3 71.7 68.5 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 20.2 20.7 19.7 2.7 75.2 70.2 16.6 18.8 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 19.5 20.1 18.9 2.5 74.7 71.6 16.3 17.4 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 20.2 19.3 18.1 2.4 70.6 69.8 16.8 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 20.4 21.0 19.5 2.4 73.3 70.8 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 19.0 20.8 18.6 3.2 82.3 77.2 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 15.7 16.2 17.9 2.9 75.3 71.2 11.6 13.8 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 20.2 20.2 19.8 2.1 69.9 68.1 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------