***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 22.3 23.5 21.6 3.1 84.0 82.5 20.3 20.7 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 22.8 23.4 21.2 2.5 79.8 77.6 20.2 20.9 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 22.8 23.9 21.8 2.9 81.6 80.4 20.2 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 17.3 18.3 19.1 3.9 89.8 87.6 11.8 13.4 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 23.1 24.5 20.6 3.3 84.6 82.9 19.7 21.5 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 23.5 24.4 19.6 3.8 89.4 85.1 18.9 20.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 22.5 23.4 21.0 2.5 80.1 78.1 19.6 20.6 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 13.6 14.3 18.9 2.9 81.5 79.8 9.5 11.5 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 23.3 24.3 21.4 3.2 84.4 82.9 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 23.0 23.8 20.0 3.4 84.6 83.5 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 23.4 24.3 21.2 3.3 85.3 82.8 19.8 21.8 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 23.3 24.0 19.8 2.8 81.0 78.8 19.2 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 23.8 24.4 20.6 2.6 79.7 77.8 20.5 21.7 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 23.8 24.8 20.9 2.9 82.2 79.3 19.9 21.4 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 23.1 23.7 21.5 3.6 88.1 85.9 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 24.3 24.8 20.6 3.1 83.0 81.1 20.8 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 22.2 22.7 20.6 2.5 80.2 77.7 19.7 20.2 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 22.5 23.2 19.1 3.0 81.9 80.1 18.9 20.0 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 23.0 23.7 21.5 2.6 80.5 78.3 20.1 20.8 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 19.3 19.8 16.9 2.2 76.9 74.0 14.8 17.8 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 23.1 24.1 22.0 3.3 85.4 83.8 19.7 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 23.3 24.2 20.8 2.5 81.3 78.5 19.9 20.8 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 23.3 23.8 21.7 2.7 81.1 78.9 20.2 21.1 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 23.5 24.7 21.0 3.1 83.1 80.8 19.4 21.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 22.3 22.7 20.8 3.3 85.8 83.8 19.5 20.7 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 23.0 23.7 19.0 2.3 76.7 74.7 20.0 21.2 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 22.5 23.4 21.1 3.1 84.8 82.5 20.4 21.0 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 23.9 25.2 20.4 3.9 90.1 87.8 18.1 20.4 22.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 18.6 19.1 18.2 2.5 78.3 75.9 14.4 16.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 22.5 23.1 21.3 2.5 79.6 77.8 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------