***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 7.3 7.6 10.6 1.7 81.5 76.5 5.8 6.7 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 7.4 7.7 9.9 1.4 80.6 74.6 5.8 6.7 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 9.4 9.8 10.4 1.5 81.5 76.0 8.0 8.8 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 4.7 5.8 7.9 1.7 86.3 78.8 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 6.5 6.9 8.6 1.7 85.8 78.8 4.9 6.1 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 5.8 6.3 6.6 1.7 86.8 80.3 4.5 5.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.5 10.0 1.6 80.2 75.9 5.9 6.6 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 2.1 2.4 6.5 1.5 82.5 76.1 0.5 1.5 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 7.6 8.0 8.6 1.5 83.4 76.3 5.6 6.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 7.1 7.5 7.1 1.5 83.2 76.1 5.5 6.6 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 6.7 7.1 7.9 1.5 84.5 77.7 5.2 5.9 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 5.9 6.3 7.3 1.6 84.7 78.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 6.2 6.6 7.0 1.6 84.4 77.4 5.1 5.4 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 7.6 8.0 8.2 1.3 80.2 72.9 6.2 7.0 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 7.3 7.9 9.1 1.6 87.0 78.8 5.7 6.4 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 7.7 7.9 7.5 1.6 85.1 78.2 6.0 7.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.7 9.6 1.5 80.4 74.9 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 5.9 6.4 6.5 1.4 82.8 75.3 4.4 5.4 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.6 9.9 1.4 79.3 73.8 5.9 6.6 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 2.9 3.2 5.2 1.4 78.6 73.2 1.5 2.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 7.1 7.5 9.8 1.6 83.6 77.3 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.8 9.5 1.3 79.2 73.6 5.3 5.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.2 9.8 1.3 78.2 72.9 5.6 6.3 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 6.6 7.1 8.1 1.4 82.3 75.0 5.4 6.2 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 7.8 8.4 9.7 1.8 83.8 77.8 6.0 6.5 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 6.5 6.8 6.8 1.6 85.5 78.7 5.4 6.1 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 7.6 8.2 10.2 1.8 83.5 78.0 6.0 6.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 5.9 6.3 8.1 1.7 86.1 78.6 4.2 5.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 5.5 5.9 5.9 1.3 79.2 72.6 3.7 4.6 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 7.6 8.0 10.2 1.5 80.0 75.0 6.0 6.8 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------