***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.6 7.8 0.6 55.8 54.9 3.3 4.3 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.1 5.2 7.4 0.7 57.6 55.8 2.6 4.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.9 7.5 7.7 0.6 55.7 54.9 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.6 2.0 5.1 0.5 52.1 54.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.8 5.5 0.5 51.2 54.0 1.9 2.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.3 3.7 0.5 50.1 54.5 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.0 7.5 0.7 57.0 55.8 3.1 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 0.3 -0.3 3.9 0.4 52.0 54.0 -1.7 -0.4 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.3 5.8 0.5 51.7 54.2 3.1 4.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.7 4.5 0.4 51.7 54.0 2.5 3.7 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.4 4.9 0.4 50.0 53.4 2.2 3.4 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.1 4.4 0.5 52.0 54.2 1.7 2.0 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.5 4.1 0.5 50.0 54.3 1.6 2.5 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.5 5.8 0.6 52.6 55.2 3.6 5.4 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.8 6.0 0.5 52.2 54.4 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.9 4.4 0.4 49.8 53.6 3.1 3.9 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.3 7.3 0.8 57.8 56.5 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.7 3.9 0.4 50.9 53.9 1.2 2.6 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.9 7.4 0.7 56.5 55.6 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -1.2 -0.4 2.7 0.4 49.7 53.7 -1.0 -0.4 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.1 7.0 0.6 53.3 54.9 3.1 4.1 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.1 7.1 0.8 57.5 56.5 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.8 7.3 0.6 53.4 55.1 2.3 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.5 3.7 5.4 0.5 51.5 54.5 2.8 3.7 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.0 6.7 0.7 55.4 55.4 3.0 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.0 3.9 0.5 49.3 54.6 2.5 3.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.1 7.4 0.7 55.6 55.3 2.6 4.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.0 5.1 0.4 51.1 54.1 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.4 2.6 3.6 0.4 50.2 53.7 2.0 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.4 7.6 0.7 57.6 55.4 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------