***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.0 9.0 0.5 56.4 54.9 5.1 5.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.7 8.5 0.4 55.7 54.0 4.4 5.3 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.1 9.0 0.5 56.7 55.3 6.3 7.3 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.6 6.5 0.7 58.4 57.7 1.1 2.3 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.7 6.8 0.6 57.6 57.6 4.2 5.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.1 5.3 0.9 59.6 60.5 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.1 8.5 0.5 56.0 55.0 4.6 5.5 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.9 2.0 5.3 0.8 58.6 58.7 -0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.9 7.1 0.6 57.4 57.3 4.6 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.4 5.9 0.7 59.0 58.3 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.8 6.3 0.7 57.6 58.3 4.5 5.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.4 5.8 0.7 57.7 58.5 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.7 5.4 0.7 54.7 57.7 4.7 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.2 7.0 0.6 57.9 56.1 4.9 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.2 7.5 0.7 59.2 58.3 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.2 6.7 5.8 0.7 55.9 58.0 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.0 8.3 0.4 57.3 54.0 4.4 5.5 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.1 5.2 0.7 58.3 57.7 3.8 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.1 8.6 0.4 54.8 54.3 4.4 5.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.5 3.8 0.7 57.2 56.5 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.1 8.3 0.5 57.0 56.3 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.8 8.2 0.5 57.8 54.8 4.1 5.4 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.8 8.6 0.5 55.3 55.2 4.4 5.3 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.0 6.7 0.6 58.7 57.0 4.3 5.2 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.4 7.9 0.6 57.1 56.4 5.3 5.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.5 5.2 0.7 55.1 56.8 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.8 8.6 0.6 57.1 55.8 5.3 6.5 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.5 6.5 0.7 59.0 58.2 3.6 4.3 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.6 4.8 0.7 57.7 57.1 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.7 8.7 0.4 56.5 54.4 4.5 5.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------