***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.9 11.6 2.0 75.3 71.1 4.8 6.2 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 7.7 8.9 11.0 1.8 75.0 70.0 4.6 6.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 10.2 10.6 11.5 1.9 74.0 71.0 6.8 8.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 5.1 5.6 8.8 2.0 78.1 73.4 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.7 9.6 1.8 74.9 70.8 4.0 5.7 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.6 7.6 7.3 1.8 76.3 70.8 3.4 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.9 11.0 1.9 76.4 71.2 5.0 5.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 2.9 4.2 7.3 1.6 73.5 68.8 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 7.9 8.5 9.5 1.6 73.7 69.6 5.9 6.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 7.9 8.3 8.0 1.6 73.2 68.9 5.1 6.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 7.7 8.4 8.8 1.6 73.9 69.0 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 6.5 7.3 8.1 1.7 73.2 69.5 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 6.9 7.8 7.6 1.4 69.9 65.8 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 7.2 8.5 9.1 1.6 70.9 68.4 5.6 6.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 8.2 8.6 10.1 1.9 77.3 74.0 6.3 7.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 8.1 9.0 8.2 1.6 72.5 68.2 5.6 6.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.7 8.4 10.7 1.9 76.2 71.3 5.4 6.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 6.9 7.0 7.4 1.7 71.9 68.9 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 7.8 8.6 10.9 1.7 73.5 69.4 4.7 6.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 2.3 3.3 5.9 1.5 67.2 65.2 0.6 1.8 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 7.6 8.5 10.7 1.8 73.9 70.7 5.2 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 6.8 7.2 10.7 1.8 73.6 70.4 4.4 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 8.1 8.0 10.8 1.7 72.4 69.2 5.1 6.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 6.9 7.3 9.1 1.7 73.4 69.4 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 8.8 9.6 10.9 2.0 75.2 71.5 4.7 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 7.1 7.6 7.5 1.6 71.2 67.6 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 8.5 9.1 11.3 2.1 75.9 71.4 4.2 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.4 8.9 1.9 77.1 72.3 3.6 4.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.7 6.7 1.5 68.2 66.4 3.5 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 8.2 8.9 11.3 1.9 75.1 70.2 4.9 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------