***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 11.0 12.2 13.8 3.5 91.7 89.1 7.9 8.6 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 10.8 11.4 12.6 2.8 88.0 85.4 7.8 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 12.5 13.2 13.5 3.1 89.6 88.0 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 8.5 9.8 11.3 3.7 91.9 90.9 5.4 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 10.6 11.9 12.5 3.8 92.2 91.4 6.2 8.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 9.5 10.9 10.0 3.8 92.2 91.5 5.6 6.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 10.6 11.3 12.8 3.1 88.0 87.2 8.0 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 5.2 6.4 9.4 3.0 88.9 87.3 3.1 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 11.2 12.2 11.9 3.2 89.3 88.1 8.1 9.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 10.4 11.7 10.1 3.0 88.7 87.0 7.6 8.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 10.1 11.7 11.7 3.5 91.3 90.2 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 9.3 10.3 10.8 3.5 91.2 90.1 5.8 6.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 10.2 11.3 10.9 3.6 92.6 91.1 6.0 7.4 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 10.3 10.9 10.8 2.4 86.3 83.0 8.3 9.3 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 11.2 12.0 13.0 3.5 91.5 90.6 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 11.3 12.8 11.4 3.8 92.0 91.1 7.7 9.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 10.9 11.1 12.0 2.6 86.3 84.6 8.4 9.2 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 9.3 10.4 9.5 2.9 89.2 86.7 6.4 7.7 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 10.4 11.0 12.6 2.6 87.3 84.3 8.0 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 6.4 7.4 8.2 2.8 87.8 85.7 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 10.7 11.8 13.2 3.5 91.6 90.4 7.2 8.2 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 9.7 10.2 12.1 2.4 84.6 82.6 7.2 8.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 10.0 10.2 12.4 2.5 85.9 83.0 7.7 9.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 9.6 10.5 11.2 2.7 88.0 85.3 7.3 8.5 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 11.0 12.6 13.5 3.7 93.0 90.6 7.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 10.6 11.2 10.6 3.7 91.9 92.0 6.5 7.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 11.6 13.4 13.7 3.8 92.8 90.4 7.5 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 9.7 10.8 11.7 3.6 91.4 90.6 6.5 7.5 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 8.6 9.5 8.6 2.5 86.0 83.1 6.6 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 11.4 11.8 13.1 2.9 88.5 86.3 7.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------