***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 40.5 54.8 57.3 130.2 69.1 62.3 17.4 33.0 46.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 37.6 48.3 54.4 122.0 67.1 58.7 17.5 31.4 48.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 44.3 61.7 57.6 126.8 72.1 62.0 21.3 37.2 57.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 64.4 74.9 70.2 130.9 71.6 63.6 23.8 38.0 58.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 42.3 52.5 66.0 127.8 68.6 62.6 27.0 36.3 43.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 53.0 51.2 69.0 124.2 69.2 62.5 19.3 39.9 47.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 33.5 42.7 54.5 122.9 65.9 58.9 19.2 29.1 42.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 69.1 79.2 67.6 121.5 67.9 61.9 39.5 46.5 77.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 42.3 58.0 64.2 127.1 69.2 62.0 28.8 35.8 42.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 50.9 49.6 68.2 123.4 65.8 61.6 34.8 45.3 49.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 48.8 51.4 60.7 127.5 71.3 63.7 25.2 35.9 47.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 45.5 43.6 59.1 123.0 70.8 62.7 27.3 38.5 43.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 55.1 56.0 62.7 122.9 71.3 62.3 22.8 39.0 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 70.8 77.9 69.4 121.9 69.1 60.6 43.5 62.8 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 46.5 54.0 72.3 130.3 73.2 63.8 11.2 28.5 50.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 49.2 54.7 60.8 125.1 72.0 63.4 19.8 35.0 42.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 20.4 33.9 52.6 119.7 63.8 56.9 15.7 30.5 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 52.9 58.6 72.4 117.4 62.7 59.3 33.8 48.7 61.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 51.6 67.6 55.0 123.1 70.0 59.6 19.9 44.2 62.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 56.3 57.3 83.0 110.1 59.6 57.2 39.0 52.6 61.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 42.7 60.0 59.6 129.1 71.2 62.5 25.4 36.4 48.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 42.2 46.3 53.4 118.7 66.8 56.6 24.1 36.6 46.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 61.4 65.8 57.4 123.9 72.2 60.6 26.1 44.2 63.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 58.0 57.3 66.4 121.5 67.7 60.6 33.5 46.7 56.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 38.8 53.1 66.3 130.4 71.1 62.6 19.3 31.2 46.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 41.3 50.4 61.1 121.2 68.0 61.7 32.3 37.1 49.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 34.7 55.4 62.5 129.3 70.1 62.4 18.1 26.9 51.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 44.2 45.8 69.3 128.8 72.5 63.7 14.6 31.8 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 70.0 73.1 75.2 113.1 61.5 57.4 48.8 63.5 78.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 39.0 48.1 55.7 125.2 68.9 60.2 15.8 32.8 47.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------