***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.7 7.5 10.2 97.1 58.9 49.4 1.2 3.4 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.0 6.9 10.5 98.2 63.8 49.4 0.7 2.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.2 7.4 10.8 101.7 60.4 49.4 1.4 5.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 12.0 13.2 97.5 65.4 52.1 1.0 6.5 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.3 9.6 12.2 94.6 65.9 50.7 1.5 4.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.0 12.5 98.5 62.9 53.1 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.7 6.1 10.1 94.8 60.3 49.6 1.3 3.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 10.2 12.2 93.7 62.1 50.2 1.0 6.3 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.3 7.8 12.1 94.0 64.1 49.6 1.6 5.2 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.3 12.8 95.5 63.8 50.0 3.3 8.1 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.4 10.9 95.1 64.8 51.5 0.8 6.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.8 10.3 93.0 61.2 50.5 0.8 3.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.8 10.9 90.7 60.2 51.3 0.9 3.8 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.9 14.2 107.5 63.0 50.3 2.2 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.8 14.3 102.2 65.5 53.2 1.0 2.0 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.3 6.8 10.9 94.4 65.0 52.1 0.5 2.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.8 9.8 90.6 58.3 48.0 1.5 3.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.3 14.3 96.4 62.5 48.7 1.5 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.7 7.2 10.8 102.6 64.7 50.2 1.5 3.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.9 16.9 90.6 60.6 48.9 1.0 4.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.7 11.1 94.2 61.0 48.5 1.0 6.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.0 10.2 91.0 58.7 48.0 1.6 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.7 8.1 11.5 108.1 65.0 51.2 1.3 3.4 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.3 13.0 101.3 62.1 48.7 2.4 6.8 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.9 11.9 94.1 59.0 49.8 1.4 2.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.5 3.9 10.0 88.3 58.3 51.5 0.7 2.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.7 11.0 94.8 58.6 49.7 0.7 2.3 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.6 13.4 100.4 67.4 53.1 1.3 5.0 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 16.4 15.8 96.9 61.6 48.8 5.3 10.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.5 5.2 10.6 101.2 63.6 50.4 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------