***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.1 24.3 13.6 138.0 74.5 57.1 2.6 6.7 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.1 13.8 14.7 128.7 73.2 53.5 0.1 3.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.2 21.2 13.2 125.5 72.3 55.3 2.0 7.3 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 20.4 15.9 135.3 71.6 57.5 2.7 8.1 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.5 18.9 14.8 132.5 71.8 57.1 3.2 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.7 9.2 15.1 109.8 66.1 55.1 2.5 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.8 11.0 15.1 127.7 73.5 53.3 1.6 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 16.9 14.2 109.9 64.7 52.3 5.1 10.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.0 18.6 13.9 125.6 72.7 55.9 4.1 7.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 14.3 13.9 114.3 67.2 53.6 4.6 7.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.7 13.2 130.9 70.0 56.9 2.5 6.9 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.1 9.6 12.8 115.4 65.6 53.5 2.6 6.5 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.8 12.7 14.2 114.3 67.6 55.1 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 23.6 15.8 121.2 67.2 53.9 5.6 10.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.4 15.6 125.6 70.9 56.0 1.1 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.7 14.2 13.4 123.4 68.9 56.5 3.2 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.0 12.9 15.4 131.9 73.7 53.2 1.1 2.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.7 14.5 103.4 60.6 51.8 5.0 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.3 18.8 14.3 129.9 72.7 53.9 2.7 4.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.7 19.1 103.3 60.3 51.2 4.3 8.0 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.2 18.8 13.0 132.1 74.8 56.2 2.2 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.0 20.0 15.2 134.5 73.9 53.4 0.8 5.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.7 23.0 14.1 129.8 70.3 54.0 2.9 9.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.7 16.4 14.0 113.7 65.4 53.5 3.4 9.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.5 19.1 15.7 134.4 72.1 56.2 1.4 5.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.7 15.4 14.1 112.3 66.8 53.8 2.9 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.9 23.0 15.3 135.0 73.5 56.0 2.3 4.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.5 11.2 15.0 125.8 70.2 56.3 1.1 7.0 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.7 15.7 101.6 58.0 50.8 5.8 9.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.1 17.2 14.3 128.8 74.2 54.4 0.9 5.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------