***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 5.2 7.3 18.1 188.9 82.5 62.5 0.1 2.8 3.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 9.1 10.4 14.7 149.6 74.3 59.9 0.0 2.8 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 10.7 13.9 18.1 182.5 80.1 63.3 0.3 5.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 17.4 27.4 22.4 197.1 83.3 65.9 1.6 6.3 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.3 18.3 20.6 188.0 80.9 64.8 0.6 5.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 17.6 24.4 23.0 172.8 79.5 65.3 1.1 4.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 7.4 10.3 14.7 149.5 75.5 60.3 0.3 2.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 20.4 25.8 20.7 163.4 77.8 62.8 5.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 11.9 16.6 20.5 192.3 80.3 64.2 0.8 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 14.7 17.0 21.0 174.1 78.4 63.3 4.2 10.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 13.2 16.6 18.7 177.3 78.9 64.6 1.3 6.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.9 18.1 18.4 169.8 78.4 64.1 0.9 6.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 19.0 23.5 19.9 173.0 78.6 65.4 1.5 7.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 21.0 24.8 18.7 152.5 74.1 59.5 1.6 9.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 11.3 23.7 25.4 198.8 82.8 65.9 0.5 2.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 11.7 15.4 19.3 177.7 79.1 65.4 1.2 4.9 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.0 11.8 12.7 136.1 73.7 57.3 0.4 4.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 16.4 20.0 22.2 168.1 78.0 62.9 3.8 9.1 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 11.5 12.0 15.0 152.8 74.9 60.0 0.6 2.9 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 15.1 17.9 24.7 152.4 76.9 61.6 4.6 8.8 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 8.6 11.5 19.3 200.7 82.9 64.3 1.7 5.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.7 11.5 12.7 135.2 73.8 58.5 0.2 5.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 11.0 13.0 15.7 156.6 74.4 59.6 0.4 2.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 12.6 15.5 20.2 170.3 78.0 62.1 2.5 5.4 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 10.3 16.8 21.1 193.1 84.8 64.3 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 16.3 20.1 20.2 178.2 81.5 67.0 1.9 8.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 8.4 14.4 19.6 181.7 81.3 62.8 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 15.8 22.8 23.0 191.5 81.9 65.1 1.2 4.0 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 23.6 28.7 22.6 159.3 77.7 61.7 8.5 12.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 9.7 12.2 16.1 161.6 76.0 61.3 0.4 1.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------