***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.7 15.3 109.5 71.2 59.8 1.4 5.4 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.0 14.9 14.5 114.7 67.5 58.6 3.0 9.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 16.2 13.5 15.6 108.1 68.1 60.3 2.3 7.1 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.0 15.6 18.7 110.1 68.3 59.8 3.3 11.3 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 7.8 9.6 18.5 110.8 68.5 59.9 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.4 18.4 116.6 65.6 60.5 2.8 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.4 14.9 14.6 121.4 70.1 59.6 1.9 10.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.9 15.6 20.5 120.2 71.9 62.4 6.3 10.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.8 13.6 17.7 111.2 69.5 61.2 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.8 18.5 20.6 116.4 72.3 61.7 3.0 8.6 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.9 12.8 17.9 115.6 68.6 60.4 1.6 3.9 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 11.8 15.3 17.6 117.7 70.0 62.0 1.1 3.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 15.5 14.3 17.8 117.5 69.5 60.9 1.7 4.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.6 17.6 20.7 112.2 68.0 60.6 3.1 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.8 12.7 17.0 104.4 67.4 58.4 0.9 3.7 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.3 10.0 17.2 112.6 67.2 58.9 1.2 2.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.5 14.8 121.5 69.9 59.5 0.5 7.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 20.6 21.3 109.1 71.0 60.6 6.4 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 17.6 15.0 112.1 66.8 58.9 2.0 6.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 18.3 22.3 100.9 66.6 57.1 5.5 10.9 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 14.8 14.7 16.2 108.7 70.8 60.9 3.3 8.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.8 17.5 15.3 116.8 69.3 59.5 0.3 8.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.3 12.1 16.1 108.9 67.4 59.2 2.0 7.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 17.8 20.1 19.1 108.8 69.1 61.1 3.4 5.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 12.7 13.2 17.6 113.0 71.2 60.8 4.8 10.5 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.2 12.8 16.7 110.7 66.4 60.3 1.0 5.8 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.1 10.1 16.6 114.0 71.3 60.8 2.0 4.4 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.0 11.0 17.9 108.2 67.9 58.7 0.4 2.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.7 23.0 21.2 102.5 66.6 58.0 7.2 15.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.1 14.7 113.6 69.4 59.5 1.8 9.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------