***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.1 16.0 0.3 60.8 55.7 13.7 16.3 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.4 16.1 0.4 59.9 56.3 14.2 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.7 16.1 0.4 60.1 55.6 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.4 13.7 0.2 58.9 53.2 7.8 9.6 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.5 18.1 14.3 0.3 57.9 54.1 15.6 16.9 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.2 13.4 0.6 57.4 55.9 14.9 16.2 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.5 15.9 0.3 60.3 56.2 13.9 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.4 13.5 0.6 55.0 55.7 7.3 8.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.7 18.2 15.0 0.4 57.3 54.9 15.5 17.0 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.4 14.1 0.5 56.0 55.3 14.5 16.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.7 18.1 14.2 0.4 57.3 54.9 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.0 14.2 0.5 55.1 55.2 15.3 16.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 17.8 17.8 13.9 0.5 54.1 54.6 15.9 17.3 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.1 15.2 0.6 57.9 56.0 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.9 13.7 0.1 56.8 52.8 14.0 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.7 14.1 0.4 56.8 54.7 16.4 17.9 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.0 15.6 0.2 57.8 54.6 14.0 15.3 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.1 13.9 0.6 55.6 56.0 13.5 15.4 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.7 16.3 0.5 59.3 56.5 14.2 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.3 12.1 0.8 56.1 56.8 12.9 13.9 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.9 15.5 0.4 57.8 55.0 15.0 16.8 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.4 15.7 0.2 54.9 54.1 14.5 15.8 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.6 16.3 0.6 58.0 56.8 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.8 15.2 0.5 58.1 55.6 16.2 16.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.9 14.3 0.3 58.9 54.7 13.8 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 17.3 16.8 13.9 0.6 55.4 55.3 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.4 15.2 0.3 59.6 55.5 14.4 16.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.0 13.9 0.2 57.6 53.2 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.9 13.3 0.7 57.6 56.4 10.9 12.9 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.4 16.2 0.4 59.3 56.3 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------