***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 15.9 16.3 15.6 -1.8 35.1 34.7 16.2 18.0 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 16.1 16.5 15.8 -1.7 35.4 35.0 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 15.9 16.7 15.6 -1.8 35.1 34.9 16.7 18.1 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.0 9.6 13.2 -2.1 32.6 33.6 9.6 11.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 16.1 16.9 13.7 -2.0 32.0 34.4 16.9 18.0 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 15.0 16.1 12.8 -1.5 35.6 38.7 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 15.5 15.9 15.7 -1.7 32.4 34.6 16.0 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.5 7.1 12.9 -1.5 32.4 38.3 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 16.3 16.5 14.3 -1.9 32.0 35.1 16.6 18.4 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 15.9 16.5 13.4 -1.7 32.6 36.8 16.5 18.0 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 16.1 16.3 13.7 -1.8 31.4 36.3 16.4 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 15.4 15.9 13.7 -1.5 31.7 38.0 16.1 17.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 16.3 16.7 13.5 -1.6 33.5 37.8 16.7 17.9 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 16.5 17.2 14.4 -1.8 33.7 36.5 17.2 19.1 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 15.2 15.9 13.4 -2.1 30.6 33.2 16.2 17.6 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 16.6 16.8 13.5 -1.8 32.3 36.3 16.9 18.8 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 15.1 15.7 15.3 -1.9 28.5 33.1 16.2 17.4 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 15.7 16.1 13.1 -1.6 35.9 37.8 16.0 17.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 15.8 16.7 15.8 -1.7 35.9 35.6 16.5 18.3 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 12.2 12.8 11.6 -1.2 36.0 40.6 12.4 14.7 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 15.9 16.7 14.9 -1.9 33.6 34.5 16.6 18.4 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 15.9 16.7 15.3 -1.8 30.8 33.9 16.8 18.4 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 16.0 17.0 15.7 -1.6 34.6 36.6 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 16.2 16.7 14.3 -1.8 35.1 36.3 16.6 18.8 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 15.5 16.4 13.9 -1.9 34.0 34.4 16.3 17.4 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 15.9 16.9 13.7 -1.3 38.1 39.4 16.8 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 16.0 16.5 14.9 -1.7 34.7 35.0 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 15.7 16.1 13.4 -2.2 30.8 33.5 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 11.1 12.1 12.5 -1.5 36.9 39.1 11.6 13.8 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 15.9 16.3 15.8 -1.7 37.1 35.3 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------