***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 21.0 20.9 19.9 0.7 56.3 57.7 20.3 20.7 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 21.4 21.2 20.0 0.5 56.4 56.7 20.2 20.9 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 21.3 21.6 20.0 0.7 56.3 57.3 20.2 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 13.9 14.0 17.0 0.5 51.7 52.6 11.8 13.4 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 21.7 21.6 18.4 0.7 54.7 56.3 19.7 21.5 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 21.2 20.2 16.3 0.1 46.6 48.4 18.9 20.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 21.1 20.7 19.8 0.3 53.4 54.5 19.6 20.6 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 11.9 11.8 17.0 0.7 56.9 56.4 9.5 11.5 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 21.5 21.4 19.4 0.8 55.3 57.6 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 21.2 21.4 17.9 0.7 55.8 56.3 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 22.0 22.1 18.3 0.7 53.7 55.5 19.8 21.8 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 21.3 21.3 17.7 0.6 54.7 55.6 19.2 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 22.1 21.8 17.9 0.2 50.8 51.6 20.5 21.7 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 21.7 21.7 19.0 0.6 53.5 55.5 19.9 21.4 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 20.8 20.4 18.7 0.3 49.3 50.1 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 22.7 22.6 18.0 0.5 52.5 53.4 20.8 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 20.6 20.4 19.3 0.1 52.8 52.6 19.7 20.2 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 20.4 20.5 17.2 0.6 56.5 55.2 18.9 20.0 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 21.2 21.1 20.2 0.8 58.6 58.6 20.1 20.8 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 18.1 18.0 15.4 0.6 57.9 56.2 14.8 17.8 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 21.3 21.5 19.8 0.8 55.8 57.2 19.7 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 21.3 21.2 19.5 0.4 56.0 55.1 19.9 20.8 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 21.5 21.5 20.2 1.0 59.5 60.3 20.2 21.1 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 21.4 21.7 18.9 0.6 56.0 55.5 19.4 21.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 21.0 20.8 18.7 0.7 54.1 57.4 19.5 20.7 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 21.5 21.0 16.9 0.2 49.5 50.0 20.0 21.2 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 21.3 21.3 19.3 0.6 54.0 56.9 20.4 21.0 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 20.8 20.4 17.8 0.3 50.2 50.6 18.1 20.4 22.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 16.9 17.0 16.5 0.6 56.5 55.4 14.4 16.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 21.2 21.1 20.2 0.6 56.1 57.4 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------