***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 7.2 6.9 9.6 0.5 59.0 61.2 5.8 6.7 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 7.3 6.9 9.2 0.4 59.1 60.2 5.8 6.7 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.3 9.2 9.4 0.5 61.1 61.2 8.0 8.8 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 4.4 4.4 7.1 0.6 64.4 62.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.5 7.2 0.7 66.7 63.4 4.9 6.1 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.5 5.6 0.8 66.5 65.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 7.0 6.9 9.2 0.4 58.2 59.6 5.9 6.6 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 2.1 2.1 6.0 0.9 67.5 66.5 0.5 1.5 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 7.6 7.7 7.8 0.8 69.8 64.0 5.6 6.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.1 6.6 0.8 68.2 65.1 5.5 6.6 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.7 7.0 0.8 66.7 64.9 5.2 5.9 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.7 6.7 0.9 68.1 66.3 4.6 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.2 6.3 0.8 66.9 64.9 5.1 5.4 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 7.7 7.3 7.8 0.6 66.2 62.2 6.2 7.0 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 7.1 7.3 7.8 0.6 64.0 62.5 5.7 6.4 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 7.6 7.5 6.6 0.8 66.2 65.0 6.0 7.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.0 8.8 0.4 60.9 58.8 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 5.9 5.8 6.1 0.8 67.6 63.7 4.4 5.4 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.9 9.3 0.5 61.4 61.4 5.9 6.6 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 2.9 2.6 4.5 0.8 64.1 64.6 1.5 2.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 7.0 7.2 8.9 0.7 66.2 62.6 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.2 8.9 0.4 59.2 58.4 5.3 5.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 6.9 6.8 9.2 0.6 66.9 63.2 5.6 6.3 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.6 7.7 0.7 67.8 62.7 5.4 6.2 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 7.6 7.3 8.4 0.6 64.7 62.2 6.0 6.5 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 6.4 6.4 6.4 0.9 64.1 65.6 5.4 6.1 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.5 8.9 0.6 62.2 61.2 6.0 6.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 5.2 5.7 7.2 0.6 62.5 61.9 4.2 5.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 5.5 5.7 5.6 0.8 66.9 64.1 3.7 4.6 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 7.5 7.2 9.5 0.5 58.3 60.5 6.0 6.8 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------