***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.1 7.6 0.4 58.2 55.6 3.3 4.3 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.8 7.2 0.4 54.4 54.6 2.6 4.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.9 7.5 7.3 0.4 55.6 56.1 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.8 4.9 0.5 59.4 57.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.2 5.0 0.6 57.1 57.5 1.9 2.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.6 3.5 0.7 53.5 57.2 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.9 7.2 0.3 54.1 54.7 3.1 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.3 -0.2 3.8 0.7 54.4 57.4 -1.7 -0.4 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.6 5.6 0.6 55.0 57.2 3.1 4.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.8 4.4 0.6 54.0 57.0 2.5 3.7 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.5 4.7 0.6 57.1 57.4 2.2 3.4 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.4 4.5 0.6 55.6 56.5 1.7 2.0 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 3.2 2.8 4.1 0.6 53.4 55.4 1.6 2.5 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.5 5.7 0.5 53.4 55.2 3.6 5.4 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.9 5.5 0.5 58.5 57.6 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.2 4.3 0.6 57.5 56.6 3.1 3.9 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.1 6.8 0.3 53.4 53.5 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.9 4.0 0.6 52.4 56.0 1.2 2.6 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.8 7.2 0.4 54.7 55.3 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 0.2 -0.4 2.6 0.7 50.9 56.6 -1.0 -0.4 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.2 6.7 0.5 55.6 56.5 3.1 4.1 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.0 6.8 0.3 54.0 53.7 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.9 7.0 0.5 55.4 56.3 2.3 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.0 5.5 0.5 53.3 55.9 2.8 3.7 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.1 6.1 0.5 58.8 56.7 3.0 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.3 4.4 0.7 54.0 56.4 2.5 3.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.3 6.8 0.4 58.6 56.1 2.6 4.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.6 5.0 0.5 57.5 57.4 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.3 2.6 3.5 0.6 51.3 55.6 2.0 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.0 7.4 0.4 55.2 55.3 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------