***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.6 9.3 -0.3 51.6 48.7 4.8 6.2 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.7 5.8 8.9 -0.5 48.6 46.4 4.6 6.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.7 9.1 -0.3 52.0 48.2 6.8 8.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.3 6.8 -0.2 46.7 48.8 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.7 6.8 -0.1 49.0 49.9 4.0 5.7 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.7 5.6 0.3 51.4 55.0 3.4 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.6 8.8 -0.5 46.9 46.3 5.0 5.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.0 5.8 0.3 49.9 55.5 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.6 7.3 -0.1 49.5 50.3 5.9 6.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.7 6.2 0.1 49.9 52.9 5.1 6.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.4 6.6 0.1 49.2 52.8 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.9 6.6 0.4 51.2 55.7 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.6 6.2 0.4 50.4 55.9 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.8 7.4 -0.2 47.5 48.3 5.6 6.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.7 7.3 -0.2 43.8 48.4 6.3 7.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.8 6.3 0.2 49.0 53.4 5.6 6.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.6 8.3 -0.6 44.4 44.7 5.4 6.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.6 5.8 0.1 48.5 51.8 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.6 9.0 -0.4 49.3 47.2 4.7 6.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.4 1.8 4.4 0.3 48.9 53.9 0.6 1.8 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.8 8.5 -0.2 50.8 49.6 5.2 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.9 8.4 -0.6 42.8 44.8 4.4 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.2 8.8 -0.2 49.0 48.4 5.1 6.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.1 7.4 -0.1 49.1 49.5 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.8 7.9 -0.2 51.6 49.8 4.7 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.9 6.5 0.5 53.6 57.0 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.8 8.5 -0.3 52.1 49.3 4.2 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.3 6.8 -0.2 44.6 48.4 3.6 4.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.4 5.4 0.2 48.0 52.0 3.5 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.8 9.1 -0.4 49.6 47.2 4.9 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------