***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 10.0 10.4 12.6 1.4 70.5 68.7 7.9 8.6 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.6 12.2 1.4 67.2 69.5 7.8 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.4 12.6 1.5 68.3 70.8 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 7.9 7.8 10.1 1.6 73.2 71.6 5.4 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.5 10.7 1.7 77.0 74.2 6.2 8.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 8.4 8.6 8.3 1.3 71.7 69.9 5.6 6.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 10.0 10.0 12.2 1.3 66.1 68.8 8.0 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 4.8 5.2 9.0 1.7 76.4 75.7 3.1 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 10.7 11.5 11.2 1.8 80.3 77.3 8.1 9.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 10.0 10.4 9.9 1.8 78.3 76.9 7.6 8.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 9.5 10.1 10.3 1.7 77.7 75.5 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 8.6 9.3 9.6 1.7 77.0 75.8 5.8 6.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 9.4 10.2 9.2 1.5 76.6 73.3 6.0 7.4 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.4 11.2 1.6 77.5 75.4 8.3 9.3 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 10.6 10.6 11.6 1.5 73.3 70.7 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 10.8 11.3 9.9 1.7 77.8 75.2 7.7 9.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 10.4 10.8 11.8 1.4 71.2 70.3 8.4 9.2 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 8.8 9.4 9.2 1.6 78.8 75.1 6.4 7.7 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.1 12.3 1.5 70.0 71.7 8.0 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 5.6 6.2 7.2 1.4 75.7 72.6 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.1 12.3 1.6 74.6 72.8 7.2 8.2 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 9.5 9.3 12.0 1.3 69.8 70.2 7.2 8.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 9.8 10.1 12.4 1.6 78.7 75.2 7.7 9.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 9.3 9.5 11.0 1.6 76.3 74.5 7.3 8.5 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 10.3 10.6 11.9 1.5 69.1 69.1 7.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 9.6 10.5 8.9 1.4 75.8 71.5 6.5 7.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 10.7 11.0 12.0 1.4 68.9 68.2 7.5 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 8.9 8.7 10.4 1.4 71.6 69.7 6.5 7.5 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 8.4 8.7 8.5 1.6 79.5 76.4 6.6 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 10.8 10.4 12.5 1.4 66.6 69.6 7.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------