***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 38.4 38.5 50.7 107.2 61.0 54.8 20.0 33.4 46.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 40.4 40.1 42.7 97.9 52.1 50.4 20.5 35.1 50.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 45.7 51.0 51.1 111.0 62.8 55.9 23.0 38.9 53.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 60.9 74.2 63.3 124.5 68.5 59.9 30.1 55.0 73.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 44.4 56.9 60.7 128.2 68.8 62.7 29.1 37.2 56.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 42.8 60.0 64.8 133.8 72.4 63.9 24.1 37.8 49.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 34.4 35.5 43.3 97.0 53.8 50.1 20.4 28.8 45.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 77.2 80.4 67.0 127.2 67.7 62.9 38.3 60.9 77.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 43.7 53.1 60.5 125.4 66.6 62.7 29.3 37.9 52.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 65.3 58.1 68.6 130.8 68.5 65.2 32.9 46.3 54.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 50.7 53.1 63.5 133.8 72.1 64.9 24.5 38.5 48.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 41.0 42.8 59.4 125.0 68.2 61.3 29.3 38.5 42.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 55.7 65.7 68.1 141.1 75.9 66.5 28.4 35.4 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 39.1 75.9 61.0 110.1 62.4 56.6 43.1 62.8 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 41.6 54.2 62.8 120.2 67.0 58.0 16.3 35.5 52.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 42.1 56.5 62.3 133.2 72.6 63.3 22.6 37.5 43.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 35.9 33.3 42.3 96.3 53.2 49.6 22.4 31.0 39.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 62.5 66.0 68.9 123.6 69.9 63.6 34.7 50.7 64.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 55.9 51.8 43.8 99.4 53.5 51.1 20.7 49.9 59.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 58.2 63.8 77.4 119.7 66.5 61.0 37.7 53.8 63.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 45.1 56.3 56.5 120.3 67.6 60.0 24.9 38.8 55.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 25.6 37.1 42.7 92.1 49.1 47.4 26.4 39.4 47.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 55.2 57.9 47.4 103.9 59.7 53.7 27.5 49.5 62.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 78.3 62.5 60.8 119.3 68.0 60.4 28.1 46.1 59.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 44.7 52.8 58.4 115.3 65.4 58.5 19.8 39.9 52.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 44.0 49.5 57.4 117.2 65.9 57.0 32.3 38.7 49.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 37.6 42.2 52.8 106.5 61.6 55.1 18.4 31.0 50.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 40.0 48.5 63.1 129.7 71.5 60.8 21.8 36.3 46.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 74.7 84.2 70.8 120.1 67.2 61.6 51.7 66.9 79.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 40.9 41.6 44.7 99.9 54.9 51.6 22.1 34.9 47.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------