***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.8 8.9 9.7 93.8 61.3 51.6 1.9 5.6 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.8 9.2 90.8 60.0 51.4 0.9 4.2 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.5 9.8 94.8 60.2 51.5 1.7 8.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.8 10.2 92.7 56.8 48.7 1.5 7.9 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.5 10.4 97.1 60.5 49.5 3.4 6.2 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.0 8.9 9.2 93.1 67.2 49.1 1.9 4.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.6 9.0 87.9 58.3 50.4 1.5 4.8 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.1 15.5 11.9 102.4 65.9 51.3 2.0 9.2 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.4 10.9 98.8 61.7 51.0 2.0 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.6 12.0 101.5 62.9 51.2 3.5 5.1 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.4 10.4 98.7 62.9 50.4 2.7 6.8 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.9 10.5 102.2 67.7 51.5 2.1 3.7 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.8 9.9 100.3 65.9 49.9 2.4 4.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.5 11.9 94.3 60.5 50.6 2.9 7.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.3 8.9 78.0 58.1 47.1 1.6 4.2 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.8 9.6 97.3 61.9 49.5 1.2 3.3 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.0 8.9 83.3 58.3 49.7 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.8 9.8 12.6 105.4 64.7 51.8 2.2 5.6 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.6 9.5 94.8 60.3 51.9 1.3 4.2 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.5 15.2 103.8 62.8 49.9 1.6 7.0 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.8 10.2 100.2 63.3 51.8 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.6 5.3 9.3 83.5 56.1 49.6 1.6 4.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.0 10.3 10.2 100.1 62.2 52.6 1.5 4.9 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.2 11.2 11.3 100.3 63.3 51.6 3.7 6.4 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.0 10.3 96.2 63.1 51.4 1.2 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.4 10.0 97.0 61.8 49.8 1.8 3.5 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.2 10.0 96.4 63.2 52.2 0.7 3.8 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.6 9.3 87.7 57.7 48.2 2.2 5.6 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.8 14.0 13.2 103.4 63.3 51.3 5.8 9.1 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.4 9.3 92.4 59.3 51.3 0.9 4.3 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------