***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.3 15.2 10.3 88.1 60.4 51.0 2.2 9.0 17.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.9 8.2 10.4 96.7 62.3 50.2 0.5 3.7 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.4 10.0 86.4 56.7 49.0 1.0 10.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.9 12.9 11.7 95.1 59.8 48.3 3.0 7.0 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.4 11.0 95.0 59.3 48.7 2.5 8.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.8 11.8 95.7 57.6 47.5 0.8 3.8 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.3 10.6 95.0 63.9 50.2 1.2 4.1 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.9 12.1 96.4 56.8 46.8 5.4 10.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.6 11.8 100.3 62.6 52.1 5.2 8.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.4 10.7 12.0 95.8 58.7 47.9 4.5 9.5 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.9 10.7 95.9 57.6 48.7 2.3 7.6 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.4 9.5 11.3 98.5 57.8 48.4 1.6 7.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.0 11.1 91.9 54.9 42.3 1.8 6.4 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.2 19.1 12.8 97.9 60.2 50.9 7.6 14.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.5 12.0 92.7 63.6 49.1 1.5 3.5 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.3 5.6 10.9 95.9 57.3 47.1 3.0 4.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.5 11.2 101.8 63.9 51.8 0.9 2.8 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.7 11.8 87.3 54.9 44.9 4.7 7.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.7 13.5 10.3 96.9 61.0 50.6 2.2 7.6 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.7 13.9 13.9 82.8 55.2 42.0 4.2 10.9 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.7 13.1 10.9 94.0 60.8 50.7 2.2 7.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.0 11.9 108.6 63.7 52.6 2.3 5.6 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.1 17.8 10.4 97.1 62.1 51.5 1.5 11.2 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.5 13.4 11.5 90.9 56.7 48.4 3.8 12.9 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.5 12.1 97.5 62.6 50.9 1.1 4.7 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.0 12.9 104.8 60.0 49.9 3.6 6.9 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 13.5 11.3 92.1 61.3 51.2 2.2 6.4 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.1 11.0 94.4 61.1 47.7 2.9 7.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 14.9 12.6 88.2 54.5 45.5 6.3 13.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.9 10.2 92.3 61.5 49.6 0.8 8.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------