***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.8 1.7 9.2 61.9 50.8 41.8 0.1 1.5 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.2 3.5 8.8 66.1 48.3 42.7 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.0 5.1 9.6 68.4 49.5 42.0 0.1 5.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 1.3 2.3 10.0 59.7 47.1 38.2 0.5 2.8 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.3 8.8 57.1 46.8 37.7 0.0 4.1 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.4 10.9 73.0 50.2 43.5 1.1 4.3 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.0 2.5 8.8 64.4 49.8 42.8 0.4 2.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.9 2.9 8.1 51.8 41.5 34.2 1.8 6.9 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.8 8.5 56.4 46.8 38.5 0.0 5.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.3 1.7 8.1 51.0 41.5 33.8 0.4 5.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.4 3.6 9.2 60.5 47.2 38.9 0.0 4.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.1 1.2 8.6 59.1 45.4 38.3 0.1 2.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.4 1.8 7.9 52.9 44.0 35.2 0.6 3.3 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.5 9.6 56.3 41.6 36.6 0.1 6.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.8 2.5 10.4 58.3 52.9 41.1 0.0 1.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.2 3.4 10.3 71.6 52.3 42.9 0.2 3.3 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.4 9.3 71.8 50.3 44.6 0.5 4.4 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 2.1 8.7 53.7 38.2 35.4 1.0 10.0 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.1 2.6 8.7 65.3 48.1 42.4 0.4 2.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 1.9 0.7 7.9 40.6 32.1 27.9 0.8 5.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.3 9.2 61.2 48.4 40.7 0.1 5.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.7 3.4 9.5 68.2 47.5 43.2 0.2 4.9 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.9 1.8 9.1 65.0 46.8 42.0 0.2 2.4 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.0 4.8 9.2 60.4 44.4 37.9 0.3 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.5 2.7 9.6 56.0 46.5 38.6 1.3 3.2 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.3 2.3 9.4 59.8 44.5 38.2 0.0 5.1 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.0 3.4 9.5 58.5 49.5 40.1 0.1 3.5 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 0.6 1.4 10.1 63.9 51.0 41.1 0.8 1.3 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.2 3.4 9.3 53.4 36.7 34.0 1.9 16.8 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.0 1.6 8.8 63.5 47.3 41.4 0.8 2.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------