***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 6.5 9.9 21.5 206.7 85.8 70.1 0.9 3.5 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.7 14.6 14.4 151.0 77.4 63.6 0.4 3.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 13.3 18.4 21.7 215.1 85.7 69.8 0.7 3.8 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 26.6 39.6 31.4 290.8 92.3 75.6 4.0 10.0 20.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 17.9 29.7 30.5 317.0 94.6 80.4 2.2 4.9 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 17.8 38.1 32.9 292.4 93.4 82.3 1.6 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 13.1 18.0 14.9 155.1 77.8 64.3 0.3 5.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 21.6 44.1 34.8 273.1 93.4 79.7 4.7 10.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 15.7 21.3 29.3 282.0 93.1 78.6 1.4 9.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 17.7 23.1 36.5 300.0 95.4 82.3 2.9 8.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 15.0 28.5 33.3 313.7 94.9 81.0 1.7 3.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 14.9 31.0 29.0 260.0 93.0 78.7 1.4 5.4 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 14.8 43.2 39.3 343.4 94.7 85.4 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 17.9 37.0 26.6 213.0 87.2 69.5 3.0 8.0 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 15.1 26.6 31.5 308.4 91.3 75.9 1.1 4.4 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 17.3 27.7 31.5 285.7 92.2 80.5 1.2 4.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.7 15.1 12.9 139.4 73.3 60.4 0.3 5.3 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 18.5 30.7 35.8 257.4 93.9 79.0 2.3 9.9 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 12.2 16.6 15.3 151.8 76.4 63.7 0.9 4.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 24.0 38.7 40.5 271.4 93.8 81.3 5.3 12.7 21.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 13.7 23.2 26.1 259.4 89.1 74.8 2.4 6.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.3 14.1 11.9 116.6 65.8 56.2 0.2 6.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 11.8 17.6 17.6 166.1 78.7 64.8 0.5 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 13.3 22.6 28.9 244.7 92.1 74.6 1.4 7.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 12.2 36.4 26.3 256.6 91.1 76.1 0.9 5.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 17.7 38.3 25.2 232.9 91.8 77.1 2.3 6.5 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 7.9 15.6 22.1 205.4 86.0 71.5 1.2 4.3 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 13.9 29.6 32.7 312.4 92.9 78.0 0.3 3.8 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 27.0 37.0 35.7 245.0 93.4 77.8 5.4 13.8 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.9 17.8 16.4 168.1 80.5 66.0 0.7 4.9 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------