***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 16.4 17.3 16.6 -0.7 39.0 39.8 17.1 17.9 18.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 16.8 17.8 16.9 -0.5 41.9 43.3 17.1 18.3 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 16.8 18.2 16.9 -0.7 39.7 39.6 17.8 18.5 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.3 14.1 -0.7 37.3 40.1 10.1 11.2 12.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 17.1 17.8 15.0 -1.0 36.9 37.2 17.7 18.3 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 16.5 16.8 13.7 -0.9 33.4 38.2 16.8 17.5 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 16.5 17.3 16.7 -0.6 41.0 42.0 16.8 17.9 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.2 8.6 13.7 -0.9 36.9 38.0 8.3 9.3 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 17.2 17.9 15.7 -0.9 39.4 38.7 17.8 18.5 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 16.9 17.6 14.5 -0.9 37.8 38.2 17.3 18.1 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 16.9 17.5 15.1 -1.0 35.5 37.1 17.4 18.3 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 16.7 17.1 14.5 -0.9 35.3 37.9 17.1 17.8 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 17.1 17.9 14.6 -1.1 32.0 35.7 18.0 18.5 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.7 15.8 -0.7 40.4 40.7 18.3 18.8 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.1 15.6 -0.5 42.5 42.9 16.3 17.5 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 17.9 18.5 14.8 -1.0 34.3 37.4 18.4 19.0 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 16.3 17.4 16.6 -0.5 43.1 44.8 16.6 17.5 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.1 14.1 -0.9 39.3 39.3 16.6 17.7 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 16.7 17.8 17.0 -0.5 42.5 43.4 17.2 18.2 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 13.5 13.8 12.1 -0.9 35.3 37.6 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 17.0 17.7 16.3 -0.9 38.8 37.4 17.6 18.5 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 18.6 18.1 16.6 -0.5 42.0 43.7 17.3 18.3 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 18.7 18.1 17.0 -0.5 43.2 44.1 17.8 18.4 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 19.2 18.6 15.7 -0.8 40.4 39.6 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 16.5 17.0 15.2 -0.9 37.7 37.9 16.8 17.6 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 17.3 17.6 14.0 -1.0 35.5 36.9 17.5 18.0 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 16.8 17.8 16.0 -0.8 38.6 39.1 17.6 18.0 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 16.6 17.1 14.8 -0.7 38.9 41.0 16.8 17.6 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.4 13.5 -0.9 37.5 38.6 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 16.6 17.7 16.8 -0.6 41.0 41.7 17.1 18.0 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------