***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 13.3 16.1 15.3 0.1 52.7 53.0 13.0 15.9 16.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 13.2 16.1 15.5 0.4 56.7 55.2 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 13.9 16.2 15.7 0.2 52.8 53.9 13.8 16.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.5 8.5 13.1 0.2 54.1 53.4 7.2 8.1 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 13.9 16.2 13.9 0.1 51.9 52.8 13.0 15.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.9 15.0 12.9 0.3 52.8 54.0 13.2 14.6 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 13.2 15.5 15.4 0.3 54.7 54.3 13.1 14.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.9 7.3 13.0 0.3 53.8 53.9 6.4 7.1 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 13.8 16.0 14.5 0.2 52.3 53.2 13.5 15.8 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 13.5 16.2 13.7 0.3 53.8 53.7 12.9 15.9 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.7 15.9 13.9 0.2 52.4 53.1 13.3 15.9 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 13.3 15.3 13.6 0.2 52.4 53.5 12.8 15.2 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 13.8 16.0 13.3 0.1 49.4 53.2 13.7 16.0 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 13.7 16.6 14.8 0.5 55.4 55.2 14.0 16.1 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 13.4 15.2 13.8 0.3 55.9 54.6 13.4 15.0 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.6 16.6 13.7 0.2 51.8 53.1 14.3 16.5 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 12.9 14.8 15.4 0.4 56.4 56.0 12.8 13.9 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 12.7 15.8 13.6 0.5 54.7 54.6 12.2 15.1 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 13.5 15.9 15.7 0.4 55.8 55.2 13.3 15.4 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 9.7 12.3 11.5 0.5 54.4 54.8 11.2 12.1 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 13.9 16.1 15.0 0.1 51.6 52.7 13.3 16.1 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 13.4 15.7 15.3 0.4 54.5 55.5 13.5 15.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.7 16.1 15.9 0.4 55.1 55.4 13.4 16.0 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.0 16.8 14.8 0.4 53.9 54.7 13.9 16.0 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 12.9 15.2 13.7 0.0 49.9 52.1 12.8 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.4 15.4 13.2 0.4 52.6 55.0 14.1 15.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.3 15.8 14.6 0.0 51.6 52.4 13.6 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 12.9 15.2 13.5 0.3 56.0 54.0 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.0 11.4 12.9 0.5 55.0 54.8 9.8 10.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 13.2 15.7 15.5 0.3 55.0 54.5 13.2 15.0 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------