***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 15.1 17.9 17.0 0.6 55.6 55.8 14.9 17.0 18.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 14.9 18.0 17.1 0.8 59.9 56.9 15.7 17.3 18.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 15.7 18.7 17.4 0.7 58.0 56.3 15.5 18.4 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.4 11.0 14.9 0.8 59.4 58.7 8.3 9.7 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 18.5 18.5 15.8 0.8 56.7 58.0 15.6 18.2 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 17.2 17.7 15.0 1.4 65.2 62.1 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 15.0 17.8 17.0 0.7 59.6 56.0 15.2 17.7 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.8 15.1 1.2 63.9 60.4 7.1 8.8 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.5 18.8 16.3 0.8 56.7 57.7 15.9 18.0 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 17.8 18.3 15.6 1.1 60.6 59.2 15.3 17.3 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.5 15.9 1.0 61.4 59.7 15.7 17.8 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 17.3 18.9 15.8 1.2 62.1 60.4 15.1 16.8 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.9 15.4 1.1 59.3 59.7 16.3 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.5 16.4 0.8 58.3 56.7 15.4 17.4 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.6 17.3 15.6 0.9 65.7 61.0 14.5 16.2 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 18.9 19.7 15.7 1.1 61.0 60.1 16.4 18.4 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.3 17.4 16.9 0.7 59.1 56.9 15.0 16.2 18.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.7 15.5 1.1 60.4 58.7 14.1 16.4 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.8 18.2 17.3 0.8 61.0 57.2 15.2 17.6 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 14.8 15.4 13.5 1.3 62.7 60.4 12.0 14.3 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 18.6 18.7 16.8 0.7 55.7 56.4 15.5 18.3 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.8 17.8 16.8 0.6 57.5 56.6 15.2 17.0 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.1 18.3 17.5 0.9 61.1 57.5 15.4 17.4 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.7 19.0 16.4 0.9 58.3 57.3 15.3 18.2 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.3 15.5 0.6 55.6 56.6 15.5 16.6 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.5 15.5 1.3 64.8 61.3 15.9 17.7 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.4 16.4 0.7 57.0 56.0 15.8 17.5 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.9 15.4 0.9 63.3 60.0 14.6 17.2 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 14.0 15.2 14.8 1.2 62.1 58.9 10.6 13.4 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 15.0 17.9 17.1 0.7 59.1 56.4 15.7 17.7 18.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------