***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 19.2 19.5 18.4 0.6 57.4 58.5 16.2 18.6 19.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 19.6 20.1 18.7 0.9 63.1 61.3 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 19.4 19.5 18.8 0.7 58.8 59.6 16.8 18.8 20.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.7 15.7 0.6 62.5 58.4 10.3 11.3 12.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 19.9 19.5 16.9 0.5 60.0 57.3 17.3 19.3 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 18.8 18.7 15.4 0.5 56.6 55.3 17.0 18.1 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 18.9 19.3 18.5 0.7 60.8 60.2 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.1 15.7 0.7 59.2 58.8 8.2 8.9 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 19.8 19.4 17.6 0.7 60.1 58.9 17.5 19.2 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.4 19.1 16.5 0.8 59.7 59.0 17.0 18.7 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 19.8 19.5 17.1 0.6 60.1 57.4 17.3 19.3 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 19.2 19.4 16.4 0.6 60.0 58.1 16.4 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 19.8 19.3 16.6 0.2 53.7 54.4 17.7 19.2 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 20.1 20.4 17.9 1.0 65.9 61.0 17.2 19.7 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.5 18.5 17.2 0.5 59.4 57.1 17.2 18.0 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.1 16.7 0.4 56.8 56.1 17.9 19.7 20.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 18.8 19.6 18.4 0.9 63.2 61.4 16.8 17.9 20.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 18.8 18.6 16.2 0.9 59.8 59.8 16.5 18.2 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 19.7 20.0 18.8 0.9 65.2 61.6 16.9 19.1 20.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.1 14.2 0.8 55.4 58.0 13.2 14.8 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 19.7 19.4 18.3 0.6 59.2 58.0 17.0 19.1 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 21.2 20.9 18.4 0.8 67.2 61.5 17.4 18.9 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 21.2 20.3 18.9 1.0 68.0 62.2 17.3 19.6 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 19.7 20.0 17.8 0.9 63.2 60.4 16.6 19.1 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 18.9 18.8 17.1 0.5 58.1 56.9 16.9 18.5 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 19.5 19.3 15.7 0.3 57.9 55.0 17.6 18.7 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 19.1 19.3 17.8 0.6 57.8 57.9 16.7 18.4 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.8 18.6 16.4 0.5 60.7 57.7 17.1 18.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.3 15.5 0.9 58.7 59.0 11.9 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 19.1 19.7 18.6 0.8 61.4 60.5 16.5 18.4 19.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------