***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 18.5 18.3 15.8 -4.2 13.1 11.8 19.9 21.3 22.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 18.6 17.7 16.1 -4.0 12.8 13.0 20.9 21.2 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 18.1 17.5 15.6 -4.7 11.2 10.5 20.8 21.7 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 10.1 9.7 12.7 -4.5 11.1 11.5 12.0 14.6 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 18.3 16.3 13.4 -5.3 8.1 8.1 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 17.4 16.6 11.3 -5.6 7.5 7.6 19.4 20.8 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 18.3 17.6 16.0 -4.1 11.8 12.3 20.1 21.1 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 8.2 7.1 11.1 -6.0 3.5 6.0 9.9 11.5 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 18.3 16.3 14.3 -5.1 8.2 8.5 20.5 21.6 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 18.0 15.1 12.1 -5.9 5.2 6.6 19.8 20.9 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 18.4 15.9 13.4 -5.7 5.9 7.3 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 18.1 14.6 12.3 -5.7 4.5 6.9 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 19.2 16.6 13.1 -5.9 5.6 6.7 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 18.3 16.9 14.1 -5.2 8.0 8.5 20.3 21.6 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 17.8 17.0 15.8 -3.8 12.7 14.6 19.3 20.8 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 19.3 16.8 13.1 -5.5 7.0 7.9 21.3 22.8 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 17.9 17.5 15.9 -3.8 13.1 13.9 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 17.2 14.5 11.3 -6.0 4.7 6.4 19.2 20.1 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 18.2 17.4 16.0 -4.1 12.7 12.6 20.6 21.1 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 14.5 11.6 9.4 -6.3 3.0 4.9 15.9 17.1 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 18.0 16.8 15.2 -5.0 8.9 8.9 20.3 21.4 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 18.5 18.2 15.9 -3.9 12.7 13.2 20.2 21.6 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 18.6 17.6 15.8 -4.3 11.9 11.8 20.8 21.5 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 18.5 16.0 13.8 -5.5 6.6 7.8 20.2 21.7 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 18.5 17.0 14.5 -4.5 10.8 10.6 19.9 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 18.8 16.7 11.7 -5.8 4.9 6.2 20.3 21.5 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 18.5 18.0 15.3 -4.3 11.9 11.2 20.8 21.6 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 17.1 16.8 13.8 -4.5 10.8 11.7 19.3 21.1 22.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 13.7 10.9 10.6 -6.2 3.6 5.5 14.5 16.7 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 18.0 17.4 16.0 -4.2 12.6 12.2 20.4 20.9 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------