***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.0 6.7 9.0 -0.4 42.2 42.8 6.4 7.1 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.6 8.8 -0.2 46.6 47.1 6.2 6.9 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.7 9.2 -0.4 43.3 43.8 8.2 9.1 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.0 6.6 -0.2 50.5 47.9 3.6 4.0 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.3 7.1 -0.4 44.7 43.6 5.2 6.4 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.4 5.1 -0.3 43.7 45.1 5.1 5.5 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.9 8.8 -0.2 45.6 46.5 6.2 7.0 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.0 1.6 5.2 -0.4 45.5 43.7 1.0 1.8 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.2 7.2 7.5 -0.2 47.0 46.3 5.9 7.3 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.9 6.8 6.0 -0.3 45.8 44.8 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.4 6.4 6.6 -0.3 46.1 44.3 5.5 6.5 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.5 5.9 -0.4 43.7 42.9 4.8 5.6 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.7 5.7 -0.4 41.2 42.9 5.4 6.0 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.5 7.2 7.3 -0.3 45.6 46.1 6.4 7.4 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.3 7.4 8.0 0.0 53.4 52.1 6.1 7.1 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.2 7.4 6.1 -0.4 44.6 43.8 6.5 7.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.3 6.9 8.7 -0.1 47.4 49.3 6.0 7.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 5.9 5.5 -0.3 44.4 44.7 4.9 5.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.8 8.8 -0.2 46.3 46.7 6.1 7.1 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.3 3.8 -0.5 41.8 41.6 1.9 2.5 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.8 6.4 8.6 -0.3 43.9 44.7 5.7 6.8 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.9 8.6 -0.2 47.5 47.9 5.4 6.3 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.7 8.8 -0.2 45.6 46.8 5.7 6.8 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.7 6.6 7.2 -0.3 46.1 45.9 5.6 6.7 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.4 7.0 8.0 -0.5 41.3 42.0 6.3 7.2 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.2 6.2 5.3 -0.5 40.0 41.2 6.0 6.4 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.2 6.6 8.6 -0.4 41.6 42.1 6.1 7.4 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.8 6.9 -0.1 51.2 49.4 4.8 5.8 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.0 4.5 4.9 -0.4 44.6 43.2 4.1 5.0 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.1 9.0 -0.3 44.4 45.4 6.3 7.2 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------