***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.2 7.7 -0.2 45.9 49.2 3.1 4.6 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.9 7.6 0.2 52.9 52.2 3.1 4.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.7 6.2 7.9 0.0 48.7 50.9 5.3 6.2 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.5 1.6 5.1 0.0 47.0 51.0 0.0 2.3 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.7 5.5 -0.1 46.6 50.0 2.9 3.9 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.2 3.8 0.0 47.0 51.1 1.5 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.6 7.5 0.0 47.8 50.8 2.9 4.2 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -1.9 -0.9 4.0 -0.1 47.4 50.3 -1.6 -0.5 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.4 6.0 -0.1 49.8 50.7 3.7 4.5 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.4 4.7 -0.1 48.0 50.3 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.1 4.9 -0.2 46.6 48.9 3.0 4.3 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.0 4.5 -0.1 46.1 49.4 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.7 4.0 -0.2 43.7 48.4 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.4 5.1 6.0 0.0 51.5 51.1 3.8 5.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.7 6.1 0.1 47.6 52.1 2.8 4.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.9 4.5 -0.2 44.4 48.9 4.1 5.1 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.4 7.5 0.3 51.9 52.6 2.8 4.2 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.1 4.3 -0.1 48.2 50.9 2.0 3.1 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.6 7.6 0.2 54.3 52.3 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -1.7 0.4 2.7 -0.1 47.1 50.6 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.6 7.1 -0.1 48.9 50.8 2.8 4.7 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.8 4.1 7.4 0.2 54.3 52.8 2.5 3.6 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.9 7.6 0.1 52.8 51.6 3.0 4.8 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.6 5.8 0.0 48.2 50.9 3.4 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.0 6.4 -0.2 46.2 49.7 3.9 5.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.3 3.9 4.0 0.0 46.6 49.3 2.4 4.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.1 7.1 -0.2 45.1 49.0 3.4 5.5 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.5 3.1 5.3 0.1 47.6 52.0 1.6 3.4 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.5 3.8 -0.1 47.3 50.7 1.4 2.9 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.5 7.7 0.1 50.2 51.2 3.1 4.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------