***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.8 9.4 1.0 67.7 61.8 5.4 5.7 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.5 6.6 9.1 1.1 67.0 63.0 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 9.4 8.3 9.5 1.0 67.2 62.9 7.3 8.1 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 4.3 4.2 6.8 1.1 64.0 64.2 2.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.2 7.2 1.1 67.2 64.1 4.3 5.1 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.4 5.7 1.2 64.7 65.3 3.7 4.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 6.8 6.2 9.2 1.1 64.9 62.5 4.9 5.6 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 2.0 1.8 5.7 1.1 68.7 64.4 0.0 0.6 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 7.5 7.1 7.7 1.2 68.2 64.1 5.1 5.8 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.1 6.4 1.2 68.7 64.2 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.9 6.7 1.1 67.5 64.5 4.0 5.4 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.3 5.9 6.2 1.1 67.8 64.1 3.3 4.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.8 5.9 1.1 62.8 63.3 3.9 5.1 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.8 7.5 1.0 65.4 61.9 5.6 6.1 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.9 7.8 1.1 66.7 64.8 4.9 5.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 7.1 7.3 6.3 1.2 66.5 64.3 5.3 5.9 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 6.9 5.9 9.0 1.1 66.9 62.9 5.1 5.7 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 6.2 5.8 5.9 1.1 67.8 63.7 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 7.3 6.3 9.1 1.1 67.7 63.0 5.2 5.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 3.2 2.5 4.4 1.3 68.9 64.5 0.8 1.8 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.3 6.8 8.8 1.1 68.0 63.2 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 6.1 5.6 8.8 1.0 66.8 61.7 4.2 4.7 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.8 6.8 9.1 1.0 69.0 63.0 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 6.3 6.1 7.3 1.0 67.6 63.2 4.6 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.1 8.2 1.0 65.4 62.1 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 6.5 5.7 5.7 1.1 63.8 63.3 4.3 5.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.4 8.9 1.0 66.6 61.7 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 5.3 5.7 7.0 1.2 66.5 65.1 3.4 3.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 5.2 4.8 5.4 1.1 68.6 63.1 3.2 3.9 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 7.1 6.6 9.3 1.1 66.3 62.7 5.3 6.1 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------