***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.5 6.7 9.7 -0.3 44.3 46.0 6.4 7.1 8.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 7.6 7.2 9.3 -0.2 50.0 47.1 6.2 7.2 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 9.7 9.3 9.8 -0.3 46.9 46.7 8.1 9.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 5.0 3.8 7.0 -0.3 40.2 46.0 3.5 4.8 5.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.6 5.7 7.7 -0.4 41.8 44.2 5.5 6.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 6.1 5.1 5.5 -0.5 41.8 42.9 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 7.4 7.0 9.4 -0.1 49.9 46.9 6.7 7.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 2.3 1.7 5.7 -0.4 42.1 44.0 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 7.7 7.0 7.9 -0.4 42.1 44.5 6.7 7.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 7.5 6.6 6.5 -0.4 42.0 44.1 6.3 7.3 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 7.1 6.4 7.2 -0.5 40.7 42.5 6.1 6.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.5 6.4 -0.5 40.5 42.8 5.3 5.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 6.9 6.0 6.1 -0.6 39.3 41.4 5.7 6.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 7.8 7.2 7.9 -0.2 43.7 47.0 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.2 7.8 8.4 -0.4 45.1 44.7 7.3 8.0 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.9 7.1 6.6 -0.5 39.1 42.1 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 7.8 7.5 9.2 0.1 52.3 50.2 6.5 7.4 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 6.5 5.9 6.1 -0.2 44.9 45.7 5.4 6.1 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 7.3 6.9 9.4 -0.2 49.4 47.4 6.3 6.9 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.8 2.0 4.5 -0.3 44.1 46.0 1.9 2.5 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 6.9 6.0 9.1 -0.3 42.6 45.7 5.9 6.4 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 6.9 6.7 9.3 0.0 50.8 49.9 5.7 6.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 7.3 7.0 9.4 -0.1 48.6 48.4 5.9 7.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 7.4 6.8 7.8 -0.2 45.4 46.4 6.0 7.2 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.4 6.6 8.8 -0.4 43.0 44.8 6.3 6.7 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.1 5.7 -0.6 39.0 41.4 6.1 6.6 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.5 6.6 9.3 -0.3 43.4 45.8 6.1 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.4 5.8 7.3 -0.3 41.4 44.9 5.2 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 5.7 5.1 5.5 -0.3 44.9 45.7 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 7.6 7.2 9.5 -0.2 48.5 46.4 6.4 7.2 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------