***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 7.2 6.9 9.4 -2.1 18.6 21.2 8.2 9.1 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 7.6 7.5 9.2 -1.9 17.6 21.1 8.3 9.4 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 9.0 9.2 9.5 -2.2 18.6 20.0 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 4.4 5.3 7.3 -1.5 25.5 28.3 5.9 6.6 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 6.1 5.9 7.9 -2.1 18.3 21.1 7.2 8.4 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 5.3 5.6 5.6 -1.9 24.2 24.1 6.2 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 7.6 7.6 9.2 -1.9 18.2 22.2 8.4 9.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 1.8 1.7 5.5 -2.2 18.8 19.3 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 8.0 7.9 8.4 -1.6 21.2 24.9 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 7.2 6.9 6.6 -2.0 19.8 21.5 7.7 8.8 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 6.8 6.5 7.8 -1.8 20.1 22.7 7.0 8.6 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 5.4 5.3 6.4 -2.2 19.3 19.7 6.0 7.6 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 5.6 5.3 6.8 -1.9 20.2 22.7 6.7 8.0 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 7.7 7.6 7.9 -1.9 18.2 20.3 8.5 9.5 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 8.9 9.8 -0.7 36.8 38.1 8.7 10.1 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 7.4 7.1 7.1 -1.9 21.3 23.2 8.1 9.2 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 7.7 7.4 8.9 -1.8 17.3 21.7 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 5.8 5.3 5.8 -2.2 18.0 19.3 6.6 8.4 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 7.7 7.6 9.2 -1.9 18.0 20.6 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 1.6 1.1 3.7 -2.8 13.0 13.7 2.8 4.1 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 6.5 6.5 9.2 -2.0 19.7 21.6 7.8 8.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 6.9 7.0 9.1 -1.9 18.2 20.3 7.7 8.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 7.1 7.0 9.2 -1.9 18.6 21.0 7.9 9.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 7.2 7.0 8.0 -1.9 18.9 20.6 7.5 8.3 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 7.3 7.1 8.7 -2.3 16.8 20.0 8.5 9.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 5.9 5.6 5.8 -2.4 14.9 18.0 7.1 7.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 7.5 7.0 9.0 -2.2 18.0 20.7 8.4 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 5.9 6.4 8.0 -1.3 29.7 31.9 7.0 8.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 5.3 5.1 4.9 -2.4 17.0 17.2 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 7.8 7.4 9.3 -2.0 17.3 20.8 8.8 9.9 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------