***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 19.8 33.9 45.5 93.8 52.9 47.5 17.1 33.4 48.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 41.0 41.5 44.9 100.9 54.4 50.8 16.1 34.9 56.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 49.0 40.0 45.5 94.8 52.0 48.7 20.4 38.9 58.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 32.6 63.8 49.2 93.0 54.5 45.3 24.0 52.5 77.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 22.6 40.1 49.5 97.3 54.5 48.3 28.3 37.5 57.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 21.3 43.8 54.6 101.6 58.3 48.7 24.0 37.6 47.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 35.5 35.7 44.7 100.3 54.0 50.6 18.6 27.0 45.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 65.3 60.7 59.2 101.2 56.1 50.2 42.1 57.0 75.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 26.5 37.9 49.9 96.7 51.8 48.7 22.6 36.7 52.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 53.0 46.0 57.0 99.6 53.6 49.7 34.3 44.4 59.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 24.6 45.2 51.6 99.5 54.1 49.3 22.3 38.9 52.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.5 40.7 53.1 101.7 56.8 50.2 27.1 38.6 49.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 24.5 47.1 56.3 104.8 58.8 51.3 26.8 35.4 54.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 73.3 67.0 58.9 101.7 57.7 52.7 43.1 61.1 78.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 16.2 38.6 47.0 89.0 54.4 43.6 17.2 31.5 58.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 20.8 37.7 51.5 100.0 55.1 49.1 22.6 35.4 44.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 35.1 32.8 44.6 100.1 55.9 50.5 19.7 30.5 42.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 58.3 54.2 60.6 101.3 54.9 50.9 33.3 51.4 64.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 53.4 51.3 45.6 100.4 54.2 51.0 21.1 45.3 61.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 60.7 55.1 72.0 102.2 53.7 51.3 37.8 52.3 65.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.2 34.8 46.5 93.9 50.3 47.5 24.7 34.4 57.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 48.1 46.0 47.7 101.6 56.9 51.7 23.9 44.8 51.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 55.1 54.0 46.8 98.8 53.9 50.9 27.5 47.6 67.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 55.6 49.1 54.2 99.0 53.8 50.6 27.2 41.6 61.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 21.0 34.1 49.3 93.2 53.1 45.9 19.2 33.1 60.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 25.9 46.3 54.8 101.8 56.0 50.0 29.6 41.3 49.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 19.8 33.0 47.8 94.4 53.1 47.4 18.0 30.8 51.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 18.4 40.3 48.1 94.3 55.7 45.8 20.8 35.3 48.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 75.3 71.5 64.7 102.5 54.9 51.7 46.8 66.6 78.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 40.8 41.8 45.1 99.4 55.0 50.4 22.2 34.0 49.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------