***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.3 9.8 13.0 104.2 63.2 52.0 2.0 4.8 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.5 9.2 11.9 109.9 66.8 53.7 0.9 3.1 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.9 12.5 99.2 61.7 51.0 2.0 5.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.4 11.3 12.6 95.7 58.6 47.3 1.7 9.4 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.9 11.1 13.9 107.7 61.0 50.9 1.7 6.3 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.7 7.2 15.5 111.1 61.7 48.2 0.8 3.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.5 8.1 12.3 114.9 66.8 54.7 1.2 3.0 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.2 14.2 17.2 116.5 64.1 52.8 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.3 14.2 105.7 61.9 51.0 2.5 6.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.2 16.5 113.2 64.2 52.5 2.1 4.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.9 7.0 14.3 110.9 62.2 51.4 2.0 4.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.4 6.5 15.1 115.5 62.7 52.2 1.4 3.0 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.9 15.4 112.0 58.7 50.6 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.5 15.4 100.4 61.9 51.5 2.7 7.5 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.0 11.1 81.7 56.5 44.1 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.0 14.0 107.7 59.6 49.8 1.0 3.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.2 9.5 12.0 114.4 68.4 54.3 0.7 3.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.5 17.7 115.2 65.3 52.9 2.1 6.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.9 12.9 11.9 106.0 65.4 52.8 1.4 4.1 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.7 22.5 119.5 65.0 53.0 1.4 7.1 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.9 12.8 98.7 59.1 49.9 3.2 5.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.1 13.0 12.8 113.2 67.5 53.4 1.2 3.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.5 12.1 12.2 101.3 63.5 51.9 1.6 5.3 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.1 15.2 104.9 63.1 51.7 2.6 7.0 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.2 6.1 13.2 98.7 59.4 49.3 1.0 4.2 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 1.3 6.1 15.4 109.6 59.0 49.0 1.3 3.5 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.7 13.6 107.1 63.1 52.3 0.8 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.6 12.0 92.7 58.6 46.6 1.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 15.4 19.3 117.3 66.8 53.0 5.2 9.5 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.0 9.2 12.2 108.6 66.6 53.5 0.7 4.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------