***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.7 9.9 81.4 58.6 48.3 0.9 8.9 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.9 11.0 98.0 63.1 53.3 0.5 3.0 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.0 15.6 10.8 89.6 59.7 49.9 1.0 7.4 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.2 11.3 78.8 56.2 45.8 2.2 4.8 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.3 11.7 84.7 57.4 47.5 1.9 4.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.0 13.2 92.8 56.6 49.0 0.8 3.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.7 11.2 97.6 61.5 52.9 0.7 2.8 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.7 13.6 89.0 56.1 49.7 6.1 7.8 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.5 12.3 87.8 57.8 48.4 2.6 6.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.1 9.8 13.5 88.9 56.1 49.1 3.8 8.0 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.9 12.0 88.5 56.5 49.6 2.4 7.3 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.6 7.5 12.3 89.8 56.4 49.9 2.1 6.4 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.1 10.1 13.3 94.9 58.5 49.8 1.3 7.0 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.3 18.8 15.0 101.3 60.7 52.1 7.6 13.1 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.1 4.3 12.2 80.1 59.7 46.3 0.9 3.5 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.0 12.2 90.0 57.2 49.5 2.9 4.1 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.8 11.2 101.8 62.9 54.3 0.6 1.8 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.2 14.0 88.6 55.9 48.0 3.9 6.1 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.8 15.7 10.9 96.9 63.1 53.0 1.2 8.9 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.0 16.1 85.0 55.1 47.3 3.9 6.6 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.3 11.4 88.7 59.7 48.7 1.8 4.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.7 11.7 102.4 63.1 54.4 0.6 4.9 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.1 15.9 10.9 93.1 62.8 51.8 1.9 8.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.7 17.6 13.2 94.4 58.7 49.9 3.4 10.0 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.4 3.9 10.7 78.9 53.5 45.7 1.2 1.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.6 7.7 12.9 91.0 55.4 48.2 0.9 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.3 10.4 81.3 55.6 47.3 1.4 4.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.4 11.9 84.3 58.2 47.2 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 14.2 14.8 89.3 55.3 48.0 4.9 11.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.1 15.2 10.9 93.9 62.9 52.4 0.8 6.2 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------