***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 0.7 2.7 11.3 87.6 58.5 46.5 0.1 1.4 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.0 7.7 10.9 91.3 58.8 43.5 0.0 2.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.0 6.1 10.6 83.7 57.3 44.2 0.2 4.2 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.3 11.7 12.2 87.7 58.8 43.5 1.9 5.0 16.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 1.7 10.2 11.0 82.0 57.3 43.8 0.5 4.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.6 11.7 84.1 54.8 43.4 1.8 7.6 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 0.5 9.4 10.8 93.7 60.9 45.0 0.1 1.3 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.0 15.5 13.7 93.6 60.0 44.5 2.8 9.3 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.9 9.7 10.9 83.1 58.8 46.0 0.5 6.3 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.5 11.9 12.4 86.8 59.6 45.1 2.3 5.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.2 5.2 12.1 85.9 57.0 43.5 0.3 3.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 0.6 5.5 12.5 92.1 58.0 44.1 0.3 1.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.8 11.7 84.9 54.6 43.5 1.1 4.6 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.8 10.3 13.2 90.2 58.0 45.9 1.0 6.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.4 4.9 11.7 83.2 57.6 41.9 0.0 1.0 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.2 3.7 11.7 85.5 56.7 44.5 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 0.3 5.5 11.1 91.4 58.2 43.1 0.1 0.8 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.7 16.4 13.2 89.5 58.8 46.7 2.4 8.6 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 0.8 2.6 10.9 89.5 57.5 43.3 0.0 1.8 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.8 10.6 16.6 94.9 59.8 45.9 2.6 6.5 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.1 10.4 81.1 56.8 44.7 1.2 5.2 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.4 6.6 11.7 89.3 56.8 42.6 0.0 3.6 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.9 3.1 11.4 88.6 56.7 44.2 0.2 1.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.7 11.6 12.1 86.8 58.0 46.6 2.2 7.8 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 0.9 6.5 12.4 86.2 59.4 44.4 0.6 2.0 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.8 12.8 86.6 56.4 42.8 1.0 4.5 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.3 3.9 12.0 86.3 59.3 45.7 0.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 0.6 6.8 11.5 86.3 58.7 43.1 0.1 1.6 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.8 22.2 14.5 92.0 59.5 46.7 3.7 15.8 26.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 0.5 2.5 10.8 89.2 58.7 44.1 0.1 1.3 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------