***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.4 11.4 102.9 64.3 49.9 1.4 5.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.1 10.2 11.2 105.5 65.2 52.8 0.2 3.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.0 15.3 11.6 108.7 66.8 50.5 1.7 3.8 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.0 25.4 13.0 114.5 69.8 47.4 6.4 12.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.2 19.0 12.9 120.8 71.8 49.4 3.9 8.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.0 17.8 14.1 121.8 69.4 46.4 1.3 4.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.4 10.5 96.4 62.5 50.7 0.2 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.9 20.6 14.6 106.2 65.8 47.2 5.9 10.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.2 15.8 12.5 113.1 68.8 49.0 2.8 9.3 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 17.6 14.6 111.4 66.9 48.2 2.5 12.6 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.3 15.6 13.1 117.6 70.8 49.1 1.6 4.6 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.3 11.3 13.1 111.5 68.9 48.4 2.8 4.8 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.2 20.3 15.9 130.5 71.8 49.0 2.6 5.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.6 15.1 15.4 116.6 67.7 52.3 3.8 7.2 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 15.5 11.9 121.0 73.2 44.9 2.4 10.0 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.9 20.8 13.6 120.7 70.7 48.8 1.4 4.3 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.0 11.1 10.2 94.2 63.0 51.0 0.3 6.1 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.0 21.0 15.7 113.2 67.4 49.6 2.4 12.1 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 11.0 11.8 110.9 66.2 53.4 1.5 3.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 19.5 16.8 110.7 67.4 49.3 7.4 14.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.6 12.5 12.0 109.2 64.4 49.6 1.7 10.1 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.6 11.4 103.6 63.9 53.5 0.4 6.2 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.2 10.7 12.4 114.4 65.5 53.0 0.8 4.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.2 14.1 13.7 111.1 65.6 49.9 2.0 8.9 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.0 13.6 13.0 112.4 68.2 50.2 1.0 6.0 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.1 18.3 13.6 127.2 72.0 49.0 2.5 5.1 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.4 8.5 11.8 104.9 66.1 50.8 1.5 5.2 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.8 18.6 12.7 120.3 71.4 46.8 2.3 10.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 27.0 16.0 112.2 65.7 49.9 6.6 15.5 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.2 10.8 11.2 107.8 65.5 52.4 0.3 4.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------