***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 16.7 17.6 16.9 -0.6 41.7 41.9 17.3 18.1 18.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 17.2 17.9 16.8 -0.6 38.8 40.6 17.4 18.5 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 17.1 18.5 17.3 -0.4 43.0 43.1 18.0 18.6 19.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.6 15.0 0.1 54.0 51.2 10.5 11.5 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 17.4 18.2 15.7 -0.3 43.8 44.8 18.0 18.4 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 16.8 17.3 14.0 -0.5 39.7 43.0 16.9 17.5 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 16.9 17.2 16.7 -0.7 37.5 39.3 17.2 18.2 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.0 14.3 -0.3 42.2 44.8 8.3 9.4 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 17.5 18.4 16.4 -0.2 47.2 46.4 17.9 18.7 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 17.2 17.9 15.2 -0.3 43.7 45.2 17.5 18.2 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 17.3 18.2 15.8 -0.3 43.5 45.0 17.8 18.5 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 17.0 17.7 15.2 -0.2 45.2 46.1 17.3 18.0 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.4 15.1 -0.6 38.6 41.8 18.0 18.7 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 17.7 18.9 16.2 -0.4 41.1 42.8 18.6 19.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.0 16.5 0.4 59.4 55.4 16.8 17.7 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 18.3 19.0 15.5 -0.3 44.5 45.1 18.5 19.3 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 16.6 17.2 16.4 -0.8 35.6 38.2 16.9 17.8 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 16.6 17.5 14.8 -0.3 42.7 45.0 17.0 17.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 17.0 18.1 17.1 -0.4 41.1 42.8 17.5 18.4 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 13.6 14.6 12.7 -0.4 39.6 43.3 13.6 14.9 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 17.2 18.1 16.8 -0.5 43.5 43.2 17.8 18.5 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 17.2 17.7 16.4 -0.8 34.9 37.8 17.6 18.5 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 17.4 18.5 17.5 -0.1 45.9 46.6 18.0 18.6 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 17.8 18.8 16.3 -0.3 43.5 44.8 18.1 19.1 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 16.8 17.6 15.6 -0.6 41.4 42.2 17.1 17.9 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 17.6 18.1 14.6 -0.3 44.4 45.6 17.7 18.2 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 17.0 18.0 16.2 -0.6 39.9 40.7 17.8 18.2 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 18.1 18.2 15.7 0.2 56.3 52.7 17.3 17.7 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.6 14.0 -0.4 40.4 43.1 13.2 14.3 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 17.0 17.7 16.9 -0.6 39.6 41.2 17.4 18.3 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------