***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.2 16.3 0.0 49.2 50.5 14.8 17.2 18.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.4 16.2 -0.1 48.5 49.4 15.5 17.5 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.1 16.8 0.2 50.5 51.9 16.4 18.1 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.8 10.9 14.7 0.6 55.8 55.5 9.1 10.2 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.0 15.1 0.2 51.5 52.4 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.3 16.9 13.8 0.3 52.3 52.6 15.7 16.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.3 16.1 -0.2 47.3 48.5 15.0 17.4 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.1 14.2 0.5 53.7 54.0 7.2 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.1 15.6 0.3 51.4 53.0 16.9 18.1 19.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.3 14.8 0.4 52.4 53.4 16.5 17.2 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.1 15.1 0.3 52.6 52.9 16.6 17.9 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 18.1 17.6 15.0 0.5 54.5 54.3 16.1 17.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 18.9 18.3 14.5 0.3 50.5 52.4 16.7 18.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.8 18.4 15.4 0.1 49.0 50.8 16.4 18.5 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.7 15.5 0.9 58.2 57.8 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 19.2 18.6 15.0 0.4 52.4 53.4 17.3 18.5 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.4 17.0 15.8 -0.3 46.2 47.6 14.3 17.0 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.2 14.5 0.5 52.0 53.2 15.4 17.1 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.5 16.5 0.0 50.1 50.7 15.8 17.5 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.5 12.4 0.5 51.7 53.5 12.4 14.5 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.8 16.1 0.1 50.6 51.7 16.9 17.8 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 17.8 16.8 15.7 -0.3 45.7 47.5 14.9 17.4 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.7 16.8 0.2 51.8 52.2 16.2 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 19.0 18.6 15.6 0.3 50.7 52.4 16.0 18.6 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.1 14.9 0.0 50.2 51.0 16.2 17.1 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 18.2 17.8 14.5 0.6 53.8 54.8 15.7 17.7 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.6 15.6 -0.1 48.2 49.9 17.0 17.7 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.9 17.9 15.1 0.7 56.2 56.3 14.5 17.5 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.3 13.7 0.4 50.3 52.3 11.7 13.3 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.3 16.3 -0.1 48.6 50.0 15.9 17.5 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------