***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 19.5 18.7 18.0 -0.3 46.8 47.0 16.5 19.0 20.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 19.9 18.8 17.9 -0.4 44.2 46.0 17.6 19.2 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 19.9 19.0 18.3 -0.3 44.8 46.8 17.8 19.3 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.7 11.8 16.2 0.5 53.6 54.1 10.7 11.3 12.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 20.0 19.3 16.8 -0.2 44.7 47.8 17.9 19.5 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 17.3 18.6 15.1 -0.4 45.3 45.7 17.7 18.7 19.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 19.5 18.2 17.7 -0.5 42.7 44.8 17.3 18.9 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.2 9.1 15.3 -0.3 42.9 45.9 8.7 9.3 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 19.9 19.1 17.7 0.0 46.1 49.1 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 19.7 18.7 16.3 -0.2 44.1 47.0 17.7 19.1 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.6 17.0 -0.2 44.5 47.0 18.6 19.7 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 19.9 18.6 16.3 -0.2 44.1 47.2 17.7 19.4 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 18.3 19.5 16.3 -0.6 41.5 43.6 18.2 19.9 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 20.4 19.5 17.3 -0.3 44.3 46.3 17.4 19.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 18.8 19.1 18.1 0.9 58.3 58.0 17.5 18.5 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 20.8 19.9 16.7 -0.2 44.1 46.9 19.1 20.3 20.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 19.3 18.2 17.4 -0.6 44.1 44.8 17.0 18.5 20.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.9 17.8 15.7 -0.3 42.8 46.2 16.7 18.2 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 19.7 19.0 18.2 -0.2 45.9 47.5 17.2 19.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 13.9 14.7 13.5 -0.6 37.9 43.2 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 19.8 18.8 18.0 -0.3 43.9 46.8 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 20.0 18.8 17.4 -0.6 43.2 44.8 17.8 19.3 20.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 20.1 19.3 18.6 0.1 48.7 49.9 17.7 19.6 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 20.1 19.4 17.4 -0.2 44.7 47.1 17.7 19.4 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 19.2 18.8 16.8 -0.4 46.8 46.6 17.4 18.9 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 19.9 18.9 15.6 -0.2 44.5 46.1 18.2 19.3 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 19.5 18.5 17.3 -0.4 45.3 45.6 17.6 19.0 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 18.9 18.6 17.1 0.7 55.0 55.3 17.6 18.4 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.1 13.8 14.8 -0.6 40.0 44.0 12.8 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 19.5 18.4 18.0 -0.4 43.7 46.1 17.1 18.8 20.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------