***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 19.4 20.1 18.5 -1.8 31.8 34.0 20.2 21.1 21.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 19.7 20.3 18.6 -1.8 30.8 33.6 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 20.0 20.5 18.9 -1.6 32.8 35.9 20.5 21.3 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 14.5 12.9 16.0 -1.4 38.7 39.6 12.7 13.6 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.4 17.1 -1.7 32.4 36.3 20.4 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 18.9 19.9 14.9 -2.1 30.4 34.5 20.1 20.4 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 19.7 20.4 18.4 -1.9 30.3 32.4 20.5 21.3 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 9.8 10.1 15.4 -1.7 31.8 37.2 10.3 11.5 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 20.0 20.4 18.3 -1.3 35.7 39.2 20.0 21.6 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 19.4 19.4 16.5 -1.5 33.5 38.2 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 20.1 20.0 17.6 -1.6 31.7 37.1 20.2 21.9 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 19.3 19.2 16.4 -1.5 32.4 38.2 19.2 21.1 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 20.7 20.2 16.9 -2.0 29.1 34.1 20.7 22.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 19.9 20.7 18.1 -1.4 33.6 37.8 20.7 21.7 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 19.4 20.1 18.5 -1.0 40.0 41.2 19.0 20.8 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 21.0 21.1 16.9 -1.7 31.5 36.4 21.5 22.7 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 19.0 19.9 18.1 -1.8 29.3 32.2 20.1 20.7 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 19.1 18.9 15.9 -1.5 32.9 39.2 18.9 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 19.7 20.2 19.0 -1.5 32.7 36.4 20.2 21.3 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 16.1 16.1 13.9 -1.7 30.9 37.7 16.2 17.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.0 18.6 -1.7 32.7 35.7 20.0 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 19.7 20.2 18.2 -1.9 28.2 31.9 20.5 21.9 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 20.3 20.9 19.5 -1.0 36.5 41.7 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 20.3 20.7 18.0 -1.4 34.1 39.0 20.5 22.0 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 19.3 19.6 17.3 -1.9 30.8 33.5 19.9 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 20.2 20.0 15.7 -1.8 30.7 36.2 20.4 21.4 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 19.7 20.2 17.8 -1.9 29.7 32.6 20.4 21.3 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 19.4 19.9 17.1 -1.3 39.0 39.9 19.7 21.0 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 15.3 14.7 15.2 -1.6 32.1 38.1 14.8 17.4 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 19.6 20.2 18.7 -1.7 31.6 34.0 20.2 21.3 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------