***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.2 6.3 8.6 -0.8 32.3 34.9 6.3 7.2 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 5.9 5.9 8.2 -0.8 30.5 33.3 6.2 6.8 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.7 -0.7 32.4 35.0 8.3 9.1 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.4 3.7 5.9 -0.8 30.1 33.5 3.7 4.1 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.0 5.4 6.5 -0.8 30.5 34.0 5.4 6.5 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.2 4.4 -0.8 31.9 34.7 5.3 5.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 6.0 6.0 8.3 -0.8 30.4 33.4 6.1 7.1 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 1.0 1.1 4.5 -0.8 31.7 34.6 1.2 1.9 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 6.1 6.0 6.8 -0.7 30.8 34.8 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.9 6.0 5.3 -0.8 30.6 34.2 6.4 7.0 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.4 5.7 6.0 -0.7 30.4 34.7 5.9 6.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.2 5.2 -0.7 31.5 35.0 5.3 5.7 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.7 5.7 5.0 -0.9 29.9 32.9 5.8 6.1 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.6 6.3 6.6 -0.7 30.6 34.5 6.6 7.7 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 6.2 6.3 7.3 -0.6 32.8 36.3 6.3 7.4 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.2 6.7 5.5 -0.8 30.6 34.3 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 5.9 6.0 8.0 -0.8 30.0 33.5 6.1 7.3 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 5.2 4.6 -0.8 30.9 34.7 5.3 6.2 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.2 6.1 8.3 -0.7 31.5 34.1 6.1 7.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 1.3 1.9 3.1 -0.9 32.0 34.2 2.0 2.7 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 5.7 5.8 7.9 -0.8 30.8 34.0 6.1 7.0 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 5.4 5.2 8.0 -0.8 29.6 33.0 5.4 6.5 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.2 5.9 8.3 -0.7 32.9 35.4 5.9 7.0 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.8 5.8 6.5 -0.7 31.4 35.2 5.8 7.0 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.4 6.4 7.5 -0.9 32.0 33.7 6.4 7.5 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.3 6.1 4.7 -0.9 30.6 32.0 6.1 6.5 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.0 6.0 8.1 -0.8 31.0 34.3 6.2 7.4 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.0 6.2 -0.7 31.7 35.3 5.0 6.1 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.2 4.3 4.1 -0.8 31.0 34.5 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 6.1 6.3 8.4 -0.8 31.4 33.9 6.4 7.2 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------