***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.1 7.2 -0.2 51.2 48.5 3.4 5.0 6.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.6 6.7 -0.3 48.0 47.1 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.9 7.2 -0.1 50.5 48.9 5.5 6.9 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.4 4.4 -0.2 48.1 47.0 0.2 2.6 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.2 4.8 -0.3 46.8 47.1 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.1 2.9 -0.3 43.8 47.1 2.1 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.0 6.7 -0.2 50.6 48.1 2.4 4.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.6 -0.1 3.1 -0.2 47.8 48.4 -1.6 0.0 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.5 5.2 -0.2 48.3 48.3 3.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.7 3.8 -0.2 48.5 48.5 3.0 5.0 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.3 4.2 -0.2 46.1 47.1 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.5 3.5 -0.2 45.8 47.3 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.1 3.1 -0.4 44.2 45.4 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.2 5.0 -0.2 47.9 49.0 4.2 5.3 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.4 5.4 -0.1 47.1 48.3 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.3 5.0 3.7 -0.3 45.2 46.1 4.3 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.4 6.4 -0.3 48.4 47.4 3.4 4.7 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.4 3.0 -0.2 48.3 49.1 2.2 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.6 6.7 -0.3 47.6 47.2 2.9 4.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 1.9 0.9 1.5 -0.2 47.4 48.3 -1.2 1.5 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.7 6.4 -0.2 49.5 48.2 2.9 5.7 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.8 3.9 6.3 -0.3 47.1 46.8 2.4 4.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.6 6.7 -0.2 48.0 48.2 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.2 4.7 4.8 -0.1 49.3 49.7 3.0 4.7 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.5 5.8 -0.2 48.1 47.7 4.2 5.5 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.0 2.9 -0.6 42.6 44.3 2.7 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.6 6.6 -0.2 50.0 48.7 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.0 4.5 -0.2 47.4 47.5 1.5 4.0 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.6 2.6 2.6 -0.2 47.3 49.0 1.3 2.8 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.0 6.9 -0.2 49.7 47.7 3.2 5.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------